Arthur Hayes: BTC will fluctuate between $60,000 and $70,000 in the next three months

1. US tax season, concerns about future Fed policy, the Bitcoin halving event, and the slowdown in US Bitcoin ETF asset management (AUM) growth have combined to produce a much-needed market cleanup.
2. The Fed failed to meet its $95 billion per month quantitative tightening (QT) target, effectively adding $35 billion per month in US dollar liquidity.
3. The US Treasury Quarterly Financing Announcement (QRA) shows that the Treasury expects to borrow more privately held net market debt, which will accelerate the bond market and send long-term interest rates sharply higher.
4. The policy announcements of the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury implicitly added trillions of dollars in potential liabilities, which will be financed by printing money.
5. Cryptocurrency prices are expected to bottom, fluctuate, and begin to rise slowly as the market recognizes the inflationary nature of recent US monetary policy announcements.