"The Garbage Time" Dilemma: Taking Stock of Second-Half Opportunities
Original Title: "In-Depth Report: Is the Bull Market Over Yet? Reviewing Potential Opportunities for the Second Half of the Year"
Original Author: Wilson Lee, Biteye
The first half of the year 2024 is coming to an end amidst a pullback and consolidation phase in the crypto market. In this cycle, BTC experienced a rapid increase due to ETF influence, while altcoins performed relatively average. Many retail investors who heavily shorted BTC often complained about a lack of "participation."
As the market continues to experience pullbacks and consolidation, especially with many altcoins almost retracing the gains from the past six months, new opportunities may be quietly brewing.
This article combines current market trends and insights into future developments, reviewing the tracks and targets we believe are worth paying attention to in the second half of the year. The views only represent current thoughts.
In the initial stage of this cycle, the three core drivers of ETFs, BTC halving, and rate cuts have become well established.
From a well-known media report on "ETF approval" in October of last year sparking market enthusiasm, to the formal approval of a BTC ETF in early January, the expectation gap for ETFs has dominated the market's direction and dynamics;
The BTC halving in April, influenced by geopolitical conflicts at the time, did not cause significant market volatility.
With the implementation of the first two core drivers, it is challenging for them to become future market ignition sources.
Therefore, speculation surrounding rate cut expectations and the improvement in liquidity due to rate cuts will be the most significant external driving force for the subsequent eruption in the crypto market.
For most crypto investors, perhaps profiting from short-term volatility around the release of each core data set is not the primary way to earn profits. Therefore, we just need to be clear that over a longer time span, the market still has rate cut benefits to look forward to, indicating that the bull market is likely not over yet, and pullbacks and consolidation signify the emergence of opportunities.
Comparing the consolidation range in this cycle to the previous one, we can see that the current technical formation of BTC seems to be showing a concerning "M-top." However, the degree of pullback is far less than the over 50% retracement after the last cycle's initial surge, and the consolidation time is also much shorter than the previous one.
From a risk perspective, BTC's pullback depth is relatively small compared to the previous cycle, and in addition to external bearish factors, it may further decline to test lower support levels;
From an opportunity perspective, the formation time of the "M Top" is short, the magnitude is small, the presence of rate cut expectations also suggests that the market is very likely still gathering momentum for the next climb, and the market encountered support around 55000.
There is a high probability of a long-term opportunity, and the cost of chips and preservation of capital will be the determining factors for the next wave of returns.
Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/mBmRDBZW/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT
2.1 Track Background and Core Logic
The wealth creation myth of Memecoins like $DOGE and $SHIB has been enduring in the industry, serving as a prime opportunity for numerous users to enter Crypto.
In this round, Memecoins' status has been further highlighted, gradually evolving into one of the core tracks of Crypto in terms of asset market value and trading volume.
The total market value of Memes has exceeded $500 billion, accompanied by over $40 billion in trading volume.
Further analysis of Memecoin rankings reveals that after $DOGE and $SHIB, other Memes have emerged as the new stars of this round, further corroborating the outstanding performance of Memecoins in this round.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/meme-token
Looking at the track's return on investment, Memecoins have also shown the highest overall return, surpassing popular narratives such as RWA, AI, DePIN, and more.
Source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uy6y45d9rinmxkoCj7d1EQ
The core reason why Memecoins have been highly sought after by investors in this round is that Memes offer relatively better odds.
Retail Investors Have Easier Access to Early Chips: With the expansion of the crypto industry's primary investment market, VC institutions' upward valuation of projects has somewhat squeezed retail investors' profit margins. In contrast, Memes have a relatively fair chip distribution, giving retail investors more opportunities to acquire more chips, thus significantly reducing their price disadvantage.
Unrestricted Valuation, Large Imagination Space: The vast majority of Memecoins do not have a core business, and their valuation is entirely based on market imagination.
Low Consensus Threshold: Memecoins carry content that is more straightforward and easy to understand, without requiring investors to have a large amount of fundamental knowledge, accommodating the widest consensus of investors; furthermore, Memecoins can timely capture various real-world hot topics, continuously attracting attention and funds.
The risk of Memes lies in the excessively large token supply, making it difficult for investors to find a target with certainty. Additionally, Memecoins are highly volatile, and while offering high returns, they also come with extremely high risks.
2.2 Target Focus
Memecoins are difficult to evaluate and categorize from other perspectives, so below, Memecoins with odds will be selected and classified from the current market cap perspective.
Compared to the old blue chips $DOGE and $SHIB, the emerging new blue chip Memes in this round have better opportunities.
2.2.1 Blue Chip Level: $PEPE, $WIF
$PEPE, as one of the most eye-catching Memecoins in this round, has shown extremely strong price performance.
Regarding $PEPE's own symbol, as a widely circulated meme on major social media platforms, it has extremely high recognizability.
Starting from both the pulling committee consensus and cultural consensus perspectives, $PEPE is undoubtedly the first choice for Memecoin investment.
Furthermore, $PEPE currently has a market cap of about $5.3 billion, reaching a level of market odds and acceptance similar to the peak market cap of $DOGE or $SHIB.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/pepe
$WIF, as one of Solana's most iconic Memecoins, has also delivered an impressive performance in this cycle.
The hat-wearing image has become deeply ingrained in the collective consciousness, giving rise to various other hat-wearing Memecoin images.
$WIF's strong rebound after a decline has also become the top choice for many investors looking to buy the dip.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dogwifhat
2.2.2 Small and Mid-Cap: $DOG, $BOME
$DOG, as the dragon in the Rune track, is highly likely to experience a breakout along with BTC's rise in the future.
Rune, as a rune upgrade solution, has a certain probability of reproducing the fomo effect of the rune in the future, as retail investors' enthusiasm is more easily sparked.
Furthermore, the new asset label and the expected listing on a major exchange could also become key factors driving the rise of $DOG.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dog-go-to-the-moon-runes-2
$BOME is also a representative asset of this cycle, breaking Binance's listing record in 3 days and surpassing a $1 billion market cap, ushering in a new trend of presale payment, holding a significant position in investors' hearts.
$BOME still belongs to the PEPE category of culture, with a current market cap of about one-tenth of $PEPE. Although it reached its peak upon debut, it has not yet started a second market trend, thus $BOME has considerable breakout potential.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/book-of-meme
3.1 Track Background and Core Logic
The skyrocketing popularity of ChatGPT has completely ignited the entire AI industry, elevating AI's impact on humanity to the level of the "Fourth Industrial Revolution." The surge of AI is directly and profoundly impacting the crypto industry through two core logics: the digital economy and hardware demand.
As AI continues to penetrate people's daily work and life, the issue of computing power becomes increasingly prominent, leading the market to elevate the valuation of computing power companies such as NVIDIA.
Computing power is also a core pillar of the crypto industry. Before the AI boom, the crypto industry's demand for computing power had already fueled NVIDIA's rapid growth.
With the development of the crypto industry, computing power became surplus, and AI gradually became the demander of this idle computing power.
Furthermore, AI's task execution, resource allocation, and data input all occur entirely in the digital world. The distribution of interests behind it is challenging to define clearly within a traditional framework, temporarily referred to in this article as a digital economic dispute.
The characteristics of the crypto industry, such as ledger technology and Proof of Work, can naturally be used to resolve this digital dispute to coordinate the interests behind AI software and hardware.
The AI boom has precisely provided a clear development direction for Crypto in a bear market, giving rise to various distributed AI computing power, algorithm, and other projects, forming the current AI/DePIN track.
As the connection between the AI/DePIN track and AI deepens, the behaviors of companies like NVIDIA and OpenAI begin to influence the market of related tokens. With the emergence of hotspots driven by AI technological advancements, the crypto industry will follow the trend and hotspots of the AI market.
3.2 Focus Targets
Currently, Crypto x AI projects have infiltrated various aspects of AI. The following will analyze key focus targets from three aspects: computing power supply, algorithms, and the AI economy.
3.2.1 Computing Power Supply
At present, the AI products we use rely on underlying large language models, and the construction of such models depends on underlying GPU computing. The crypto industry not only possesses a reserve of computing power devices but can also build a computing power market through blockchain incentives to provide additional computing power sources for AI.
The keywords Distributed and Idle Compute Power are key features of the crypto industry's compute power offering, corresponding to the core narrative of cost reduction.
3.2.1.1 Arweave/AO
As a veteran storage project, Arweave has firmly established its position as a leading player in the storage track due to its excellent ecosystem and storage cost-effectiveness.
With the launch of Arweave's computing platform AO, Arweave has officially entered the distributed computing market, becoming an official concept token for compute power.
Compared to other compute power projects, AO can naturally leverage Arweave's existing storage advantage, achieving highly coordinated computation and storage layers, which is crucial for on-chain large-scale models.
In addition, AO has undergone aggressive designs in parallel computing, message passing, and other aspects, bringing stronger performance to AO compared to other distributed computing projects. Therefore, AO actually has a natural advantage at the compute power level.
The launch of the AO platform and related PR activities have jointly driven the price of $AR up, demonstrating the market's recognition of AO.
With the continued development of Crypto x AI, $AR/AO will become one of the most promising AI tokens.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/arweave
3.2.1.2 io.net
The recently launched io.net on Binance is currently a hot cake in the current track. io.net is a decentralized GPU network aimed at providing massive compute power for machine learning applications.
Their vision is to unlock fair computing access by assembling over a million GPUs from independent data centers, crypto miners, and projects like Filecoin, making computing more scalable, accessible, and efficient.
io.net offers a completely different approach to cloud computing, using a distributed and decentralized model to provide users with more compute power control and flexibility, with services that are permissionless and cost-effective.
According to io.net, their compute power is 90% lower than centralized service providers like Amazon AWS, making io.net a standout player among decentralized providers.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/io-net
3.2.2 Algorithm
3.2.2.1 Bittensor
Bittensor is a decentralized network that connects global machine learning models, enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of solving complex problems through the collaboration of multiple specialized AI models. This approach combines the unique strengths of each model to produce more precise and comprehensive results, outperforming traditional single-model approaches.
Bittensor also achieves scalability through an ecosystem approach, currently able to accommodate 32 subnets to serve various vertical scenarios.
Bittensor's practices in algorithm and ecosystem are highly innovative, leveraging decentralization to empower AI. With a current market cap of nearly 6 billion, it is a relatively reliable investment.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bittensor
3.2.3 AI Economy
3.2.3.1 Artificial Superintelligence Alliance ($ASI)
ASI is formed by the merger of three Crypto x AI projects deeply rooted in the field: Ocean Protocol ($OCEAN), SingularityNET ($AGIX), and Fetch.ai ($FET).
Following the merger of the three projects, a team named the Superintelligence Collective will be established, with SingularityNET founder Ben Goertzel serving as CEO. The three projects will continue to operate as independent entities but will closely collaborate within the shared $ASI token ecosystem and the operations of the Superintelligence Collective.
In the merger announcement issued by the three teams, not much was revealed about the new business activities that will be carried out post-merger.
According to Ben Goertzel's statement on his social media platforms, post-merger, the future direction will revolve around AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence), which is also the reason why the merged token is named $ASI.
Token swap information:
· Fetch.ai's $FET token will be converted to $ASI at a 1:1 ratio
· SingularityNET's $AGIX and Ocean Protocol's $OCEAN will be converted to $ASI at a ratio of approximately 1:0.433
· $FET, as the alliance's base token, will be directly rebranded as $ASI, and an additional 1.48 billion tokens will be minted, with 867 million $ASI allocated to $AGIX holders and 611 million $ASI allocated to $OCEAN token holders
Fetch.ai already has mature experience in AI agents. On February 20, Deutsche Telekom announced a partnership with the Fetch.ai Foundation, becoming Fetch.ai's first corporate ally, and Deutsche Telekom subsidiary MMS will also serve as a Fetch.ai validator.
Earlier this month, Fetch also announced the launch of a $1 billion infrastructure investment project called "Fetch Compute," deploying Nvidia H200, H100, and A100 GPUs to create a platform for developers and users to leverage computational power.
Ocean Protocol has developed many modular services in decentralized data sharing, access control, and payments. It is reported that its Predictor product has generated sales of over $800 million in just six months since its launch.
SingularityNET was the most exploration-focused on AGI among these three projects prior to the merger. Its AGI team, along with partners TrueAGI and the OpenCog community, has been focused on developing the AGI framework OpenCog Hyperon since 2020, and SingularityNET will also launch a decentralized AI platform this year with the aim of creating a conducive environment for running AGI systems.
The ASI, born from the merger of three long-standing solid projects, can be described as the result of a powerful alliance. With the synergy of business and economic systems, ASI is expected to gain a new leadership position in the Crypto x AI field, while maximizing the capture of the "attention" increment brought by external AI technological advancements.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/artificial-superintelligence-alliance
4.1 Track Background and Core Logic
RWA is a key track that tightly connects blockchain with the real world, which in the long term is a necessary requirement for the large-scale application of blockchain and, in the short term, can introduce a significant amount of funds and liquidity to both the crypto and real markets.
RWA involves tokenizing illiquid real-world assets and introducing them to the crypto market. The introduced RWA assets signify more real-world asset value support for the crypto market, bringing potential overflow funds. Additionally, interest-bearing assets in RWA can provide enhanced yields to the crypto market;
for traditional assets, it has acquired a new way of settlement, allowing illiquid assets to be arbitrated or liquidated quickly.
The capital inflow brought by BTC ETF has already demonstrated industry external funds' interest in the crypto market. As representative cases emerge in the RWA track, the track will further explode.
4.2 Focus Targets
4.2.1 Ondo Finance
Ondo Finance is a decentralized finance platform for RWA. Through blockchain technology, Ondo Finance has created a transparent investment infrastructure for institutional investors, aiming to become an on-chain investment bank, providing various RWA products including bonds, real estate, and commodities to meet the needs of different investors.
With the rapid growth of the RWA market, Ondo Finance, as an industry pioneer, has tremendous growth potential.
Its transparent and efficient investment platform will continue to attract more institutional investors, further driving market development and maturity.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ondo
4.2.2 Swarm Markets
Swarm Markets is a blockchain platform that provides traditional financial digitization and trading solutions.
It tokenizes real-world assets, including US Treasury bonds and stocks, and offers a compliant trading infrastructure.
Swarm Markets is the world's first DeFi platform to receive a BaFin (German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority) license, ensuring its operations comply with financial market regulatory standards.
As more traditional financial assets are tokenized, Swarm Markets' compliant and versatile trading platform is poised to gain more market share in the future.
Its innovative financial solutions will continue to attract institutional and retail investors, driving the platform's ongoing growth.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/swarm-markets
5.1 Track Background and Core Logic
Whether in Web2 or Web3, social networking is the most important and core track.
For the industry, social networking can onboard new users and retain existing users through user-owned relationships;
For various services and applications, social networking also plays a crucial role in growth, retention, and increasing user stickiness.
Currently, the Web3 industry's penetration rate still needs to be improved, and the increase in user retention and stickiness is one of its core issues, with social networking being the primary solution to the aforementioned problems.
In previous cycles, a large number of social projects have made attempts, but they have not produced any breakout applications.
In this current cycle, various technologies that lower user thresholds, ensure performance, and enhance user experience have reached an unprecedented level of maturity, and the social networking track is likely to seize significant opportunities in this cycle.
5.2 Focus on Targets
5.2.1 Ton and Projects within Its Ecosystem
TON (The Open Network) as the only official blockchain supported by social media giant Telegram, leveraging Telegram's massive 900 million monthly active users, has created a unique narrative in areas such as payments, social networking, and mini-programs.
TON, without increasing user migration costs, leveraging Telegram's existing social network, is able to reconstruct Web2's business model in a Web3 manner.
Currently, the TON ecosystem is still in the early stage of development, but high-traffic projects such as Notcoin and Catizen have emerged, demonstrating the huge user base behind Telegram.
Therefore, TON and its ecosystem will likely further stimulate Telegram's user activity in the future, nurturing a more thriving ecosystem.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/toncoin
5.2.2 Farcaster
Farcaster is a decentralized social networking protocol that utilizes smart contracts and hybrid storage technology to facilitate social connections, content sharing, and data ownership among users, while supporting diverse and flexible client and application development.
Farcaster is not a new social project, but a well-established leader that has finally emerged victorious from the market.
Farcaster just opened registration in October last year and has garnered market attention this year with multiple advancements in data, ecosystem, and funding, solidifying its position as a leader in the social race.
5.2.3 UXLINK
UXLINK is a dApp focused on socializing with acquaintances, leveraging a good experience provided by Telegram and a clear concept of "acquaintance relationship fission." UXLINK has achieved significant results in data. In the second half of the bull market, UXLINK will have tremendous potential for user growth.
Source: https://x.com/Coin98Analytics/status/1803363935875375499
6.1 Race Background and Core Logic
LSD/LSDfi is a core component in building yield in the ETH ecosystem. With the imminent approval of an ETH ETF, we expect a significant amount of capital to flow into the ETF, driving up the price of ETH. LSD/LSDfi is highly likely to see a growth opportunity, becoming a sector driven directly by incremental capital.
6.2 Focus Targets
6.2.1 Lido/Rocket Pool
As two leading players in the LSD space, their brands are highly trusted by whales, and they are likely to capture a significant market share in ETH staking increment.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/lido-dao
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/rocket-pool
6.2.2 Ether.fi
Ether.fi is a fully self-custodial and decentralized LSD protocol. Setting it apart from other liquidity staking protocols, ether.fi allows participants to retain control of their keys during token staking and can withdraw validators at any time to reclaim their ETH.
While ensuring full self-custody, ether.fi also automatically restakes user deposits with Eigenlayer to earn rewards, further safeguarding users' economic interests.
With a yield guaranteed by full self-custody and Eigenlayer, Ether.fi also has tremendous potential to capture a significant market share in the next round of race growth.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ether-fi
6.2.3 EigenLayer
As the pioneer of Restaking, EigenLayer has driven LSD into LSDfi, further adding a layer of yield to the Ethereum ecosystem.
The LST ecosystem built around EigenLayer is also poised to benefit from the incremental rewards of the ETH ETF. The EigenLayer token distribution has been finalized, and the official launch should not be too far off.
6.2.4 Renzo
Renzo is a re-staking protocol based on EigenLayer, designed to simplify the complex process of end-user restaking.
By introducing the liquidity staking token ezETH, it allows stakers to not worry about active selection and management of operators and reward strategies, providing higher yield and liquidity.
As an important project in the LRT ecosystem, with investment background from Binance, Renzo's current market value is quite attractive.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/renzo
6.2.5 StakeStone
StakeStone is a comprehensive LSD/LSDfi project. By integrating mainstream staking pools, Re-Stake, and the blue-chip DeFi strategy yield of LSD, StakeStone provides a highly adaptable staking yield base asset for all protocols in need of LSD liquidity.
Users can stake ETH to acquire STONE tokens, thereby gaining native staking and blue-chip DeFi strategy returns.
Furthermore, StakeStone supports multi-chain operations, further enhancing liquidity and adaptability, with unique advantages in supporting new ecosystems and receiving early rewards.
As a Binance-backed project, StakeStone had a certain level of Binance Smart Chain listing anticipation after its token launch. With business growth in mind, StakeStone presents a significant opportunity.
6.2.6 Karak
Karak Network is a Restaking network, similar to EigenLayer and other Restaking projects, that also uses a point system to incentivize users to restake their tokens and earn multiple rewards.
In December 2023, Karak announced a $48 million Series A funding round led by Lightspeed Venture Partners, with participation from Mubadala Capital, Coinbase, and other institutions. Mubadala Capital, being Abu Dhabi's second-largest fund, contributed to this funding round, valuing Karak at over $1 billion.
The strong team capabilities along with impressive investment background indicate that Karak has the strength to compete with EigenLayer and will likely generate corresponding opportunities.
6.2.7 Pendle Finance
Pendle has introduced yield tokenization and trading, decoupling interest-bearing assets' volatility from their principal value, bringing a new participation paradigm to the entire LSD.
Pendle's multi-collateral pools and risk management features enable users to manage risk more effectively and hedge potential losses, thereby reducing volatility and risk in the DeFi market.
With the approval of an ETH ETF, a significant amount of capital will flow into ETH, driving the development of the LSD/LSDfi ecosystem. As part of this ecosystem, Pendle is poised to benefit from this trend.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/pendle
7.1 Track Background and Core Logic
The explosion of the BTC ecosystem is one of the most prominent features of this cycle. Runic has sparked enthusiasm for the BTC ecosystem, with BTC Layer 2 solutions and various assets emerging rapidly. BTC staking/restaking has gained a market position amidst the ETH LSD/LSDfi and BTC ecosystem asset boom. As a new type of ecosystem asset, Rune has also shone brightly during the halving.
These attempts share a common goal: to activate a large amount of BTC funds and build a more prosperous ecosystem.
However, with BTC's pullback and the frenzy of memecoins raising market expectations, the current BTC ecosystem is relatively quiet.
As the market improves, we believe the BTC ecosystem will once again lead to phenomenal ecosystem assets, bringing huge opportunities.
7.2 Focus on Opportunities
7.2.1 Rune: $DOG
Refer to the Meme section for analysis. Rune's expectations are influenced by memecoins, and its market performance can be described as "peaking on debut." As the leader in the Rune sector, $DOG has odds as well as a certain defensive attribute, so only $DOG is currently recommended in the Rune sector.
7.2.2 Others
Many BTC Layer 2 solutions have not yet formed active ecosystems, and BTC staking-related opportunities remain unclear. We recommend waiting for the market to make a choice.
The crypto market is no longer a standalone market but is gradually integrating into the real economy. When analyzing opportunities in the crypto market, we increasingly feel the importance of external industry driving factors.
During market changes and adjustments, it is essential to first clarify where we are in a cycle, and which internal and external factors are driving the next mini-cycle.
During market consolidation and pullback periods, we should not be dominated by panic; instead, it is more worthwhile to think about the opportunities behind the decline.
Original Article Link
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