In-depth analysis of 18 phases of data, revealing Binance Launchpool's benefits and optimization strategies

Original title: "New coin mining is long overdue, 18 issues of data deeply reveal Binance Launchpool's income and strategy trends"

Original author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily

In June this year, when the market was bleak, "VC coins" were pushed to the forefront and were pointed out as the culprit of the market decline. Binance also stopped Launchpool after IO (io.net).

Until August, Binance opened Launchpool again, including TON and DOGS, but the yield was far less than at the beginning of the year.

Yesterday, Binance once again launched the Launchpool of HMSTR (Hamster Kombat). What is the price forecast this time? What changes have occurred in the operating strategy and data characteristics of Launchpool compared to the beginning of the year? Odaily will answer this question in this article by digging deep into the past 18 issues of data.

Core Questions and Answers Sneak Peek

Since the main text involves a lot of data and charts, this section summarizes the core questions and related conclusions as follows. Readers who are not interested in the specific process can directly view the answers:

HMSTR Price Estimation

While maintaining the average annualized rate of return of 108% over the past 18 periods, the dream price is 0.0593 USDT, the initial market value is 3.817 billion US dollars, and the FDV is 5.93 billion US dollars;

While maintaining the average annualized rate of return of 46.8% over the past 5 periods, the ideal price is 0.0256 USDT, the initial market value is 1.648 billion US dollars, and the FDV is 2.56 billion US dollars;

Reference DOGS The initial circulation market value is 0.0104 USDT, the initial circulation market value is 671 million US dollars, and the FDV is 1.04 billion US dollars.

Is the current BNB price reasonable from the perspective of annualized yield?

Even if calculated based on the initial circulation market value of 671 million US dollars, HMSTR's absolute yield for this period is only 0.36%, corresponding to an annualized yield of 19%, which is far lower than the previous average of 108%  .

If the time interval of Launchpool is taken into account, the passive income of BNB has fallen to the level of stablecoins such as USDT.

In the case that the destruction of BNB is no longer related to Binance's profits, the Launchpool yield is the only objective measurement standard. If similar "low Launchpool, high circulation" low-yield tokens continue to be listed, there is a risk of overvaluation for BNB itself.

Does BNB price still have a Launchpool effect?

The Launchpool effect disappears. After the Launchpool announcement, the price will not be directly pulled up, and in most cases there will even be a slight decline;

It is more cost-effective to buy it one hour after the announcement than to buy it immediately after the announcement.

Is the pure mining strategy still effective?

Is the strategy of "buying after the announcement to participate in Launchpool and selling at the end" during the bull market still effective?

Ineffective, buying after the announcement will only make you lose money, it is more suitable for long-term holding, or at least choose hedging or borrowing for short-term mining.

HMSTR price estimate

Absolute rate of return = number of reward tokens × one-hour closing price ÷ (number of staked BNB × BNB price at the beginning of mining), annualized rate of return = absolute rate of return ÷ mining duration × 365 days.

The annualized rate of return for the past 18 periods is shown in the figure below, it can be clearly seen that the annualized rate of return in recent periods has declined significantly.

Therefore, taking the average annualized rate of return of the past 18 periods (108%) as the dream value and the annualized rate of return of the past 5 periods (46.8%) as the ideal value, the dream price is 0.0593 USDT and the ideal price is 0.0256 USDT.

Under the dream price, the initial circulating market value is 3.817 billion US dollars and the FDV is 5.93 billion US dollars;

Under the ideal price, the initial circulating market value is 1.648 billion US dollars and the FDV is 2.56 billion US dollars.

Even at the ideal price, the initial circulating market value can rank 52nd among all tokens, which is very unreasonable. From a rational point of view, the estimated annualized rate of return can only be significantly lowered.

The reason for this unconventional value is that the initial circulation ratio of HMSTR is 64.38%, but Launchpool only has 3%. To maintain the rate of return, it can only be achieved by far exceeding the conventional circulation market value. However, there is already a "beautiful example" of DOGS. The initial circulation ratio of DOGS is as high as 93.95%, but only 4% enters Launchpool. Therefore, the circulation market value of DOGS at the time of listing is as high as 671 million US dollars. HMSTR may have the possibility of "creating miracles".

If calculated based on the initial circulation market value of DOGS, the price should be 0.0104 USDT and the FDV is 1.04 billion US dollars.

Does BNB price still have Launchpool effect?

Previously, every time Binance announced the launch of Launchpool, BNB would pull up the price "in advance" or after the announcement. Does this effect still exist now?

Assuming that the listing announcement is issued at 14:25 (or any time at 14:00), the corresponding calculation time points are defined as:

· The price at 14:00 (BNB closing price one hour before the announcement), the price at 15:00 (BNB closing price at the time of the announcement), the price at 16:00 (BNB closing price one hour after the announcement);

· Direct increase in price at the time of the announcement (at the time of the announcement - one hour before the announcement), increase in price after the announcement (one hour after the announcement - at the time of the announcement);

· Increase difference (increase after the announcement - direct increase in price at the announcement), a negative value may indicate that the market lacks confidence in the new tokens or "insider" profit-taking, while a positive value indicates that the market is more confident.

The other announcement times are changed in the same way, and the data is as follows:

The following figure is a bar chart of "direct increase after announcement". From the above table, we can see that BNB no longer has the Launchpool effect, and will not directly pull up the market after the announcement, and even more "insider" profit-taking.

In addition, 1 hour after the announcement, the rise at the beginning of the year turned into a fall. If you don't buy in advance, it is more cost-effective to wait for a certain period of time after the announcement to buy.

Is the short-term pure mining strategy still effective?

Is the strategy of "buying after the announcement to participate in Launchpool and selling at the end" during the bull market still effective?

BNB bought and held after the announcement fell in most cases (72%). Even if there is mining income to make up for it, the overall loss is very significant. Therefore, it is not recommended to buy BNB for mining in the short term. At least choose hedging or borrowing for short-term mining.

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