What is the reasonable price for Scroll when it is listed on Binance Launchpool?

Original title: "Listing on Binance Launchpool, what is the reasonable price of Scroll, the last stick of the public chain?"

Original author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily

This afternoon, Binance issued an announcement that it will list Scroll (SCR) on Launchpool and pre-market trading market, and will be the first CEX to list SCR. Korean trader @definalist posted on X platform that Upbit and Bithumb have tested Scroll transactions on the chain, which may imply that these two exchanges will also list Scroll.

Odaily will briefly analyze Scroll's business, Launchpool rules and make price predictions in this article.

Scroll Overview

Scroll is an Ethereum Layer 2 expansion solution based on ZK-rollup, which aims to solve Ethereum's scalability problems, increase transaction speed and reduce transaction costs.

Financing

Scroll has completed three rounds of financing, including:

The last round of financing was completed in March 23, raising US$50 million, with participation from Polychain, Sequoia China, Bain Capital Crypto, Variant Fund, IOSG Ventures, etc.

The A round of financing was completed in April 22, raising US$30 million, led by Polychain, with participation from Bain Capital Crypto, Robot Ventures, Geometry, etc.

The seed round was completed in October 21, and the amount of financing was not disclosed. Mask Network, Inception Capital, and A&T Capital participated in the investment.

Key events and data

The Scroll mainnet was launched on October 17, 2023;

Scroll launched Session Zero in April 2024, which can be understood as Scroll's official points activity or loyalty program. Users can obtain Scroll Marks by participating in officially designated cross-chain and deposit activities;

Scroll launched Session One in June 2024. This event further expanded the ways to obtain Scroll Marks, and Scroll officially entered the points era.

Dune statistics show that there are 208,000 independent Scroll addresses with a TVL of 160 million US dollars. The points are as follows:

Launchpool Details

· Start time: SCR will start mining at 08:00 (UTC+ 8) on October 9 and end at 07:59 (UTC+ 8) on October 11, for a total of two days.

· Token distribution: The total amount of SCR is 1 billion, with an initial circulation of 190 million (accounting for 19%), and Launchpool will allocate 55 million tokens (accounting for 5.5%). BNB mining pool will allocate 85% of Launchpool tokens, and FDUSD will allocate the remaining 15%.

· Trading time: Binance will open the SCR pre-market at 18:00 (UTC+ 8) on October 11, and the spot trading opening time will be notified separately.

Price estimation

The Aevo pre-market market shows that the latest transaction price of SCR is 1.653 USDT, corresponding to a circulating market value of US$314 million and an FDV of US$1.65 billion.

According to the backtest of Binance's historical Launchpool, the average annualized rate of return of Launchpool in the past 20 periods is 103%, which is equivalent to an absolute rate of return of 0.6% for two days of mining, corresponding to an SCR price of 1.15 USDT, a circulating market value of 218 million US dollars, and a FDV of 1.15 billion US dollars. The detailed data is shown in the following table:

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