$30 Million High-Stakes Bet on Trump Victory, Mysterious Whale Says: In It Just for the Money

Editor's Note: This article describes a French trader named Théo who bet on Trump's victory on the prediction market Polymarket, wagering over $30 million and expecting Trump to win by a large margin. Théo insists he has no political motive, only a money-making one, but due to the massive amount of funds involved, he is almost unable to withdraw these bets, facing significant risk.

The following is the original content (slightly edited for better readability):

The mysterious figure who bet over $30 million on Trump's victory has stated: "I do not intend to manipulate the U.S. election."

The mysterious individual who bet over $30 million on Trump's victory wants the public to understand that he has no intention of manipulating the U.S. election. "My goal is merely to make money." The man, who goes by "Théo," said in a Zoom interview earlier this week with The Wall Street Journal. He introduced himself as French, having lived in the U.S., and previously worked as a trader at several banks.

Théo's massive bet on Polymarket has attracted widespread attention, although the prediction market is not open to Americans. Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that on this platform, four accounts systematically purchased bets on Trump's victory, raising the odds of Trump defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. Blockchain data shows that the funds in these accounts all came from the same cryptocurrency exchange, sparking speculation about the motives of the "Trump whale" behind it.

Last week, New York-based Polymarket stated that they had reached out to this "Trump whale" and were investigating the bet. The company described the bettor as a French financial professional with extensive trading experience.

Former President Donald Trump's shadow is seen on an American flag during a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo: Brendan McDermid/Reuters)

Trump Projection on the American Flag: The "Whale" in the Shadows

In a statement, Polymarket said: "Based on our investigation, we understand that this individual has taken a directional stance based on personal views of the election. Details of Polymarket's statement align with Théo's self-description, who confirmed to have communicated with members of Polymarket's legal and compliance team."

Currently, election observers are meticulously analyzing various data, seeking to predict the outcome of what is considered the most intense and closest U.S. presidential election in history. Prediction markets, as a platform allowing people to bet on various potential events, have become one way to anticipate the election results. Historical research shows that the candidate with the highest win rate in prediction markets leading up to election day usually ends up winning the White House.

However, the emergence of the "Trump Whale" has exposed the limitations of the current prediction market: despite a significant increase in Polymarket's trading volume this year, the market size is still relatively small and vulnerable to manipulation of prices by a wealthy and opinionated investor through multimillion-dollar bets.

Théo: The Mysterious Wager of an Anonymous Whale

After an article about his bet was published on October 18, Théo contacted The Wall Street Journal via email. To prove that he was indeed the "Trump Whale" on Polymarket, the newspaper asked him to place a bet on whether Taylor Swift would announce a pregnancy in 2024 on the platform— one of the many non-political small bets available on the platform. Minutes later, the Polymarket website showed that an account named "Theo4" had indeed placed a small bet on Swift's pregnancy.

During a Zoom call, Théo, dressed in a gray Nike sweater with a neat short beard, speaking English with a slight accent, said he made the bet after analyzing that pollsters underestimated Trump's support. He denied speculation that he was creating momentum for Trump through his bets.

Théo refused to disclose his real name, and The Wall Street Journal was unable to verify all the details of his story. Although he claimed these bets were made with his own funds, their authenticity cannot be verified, and his possible connections to any political organization or Trump allies cannot be ruled out.

"I absolutely have no political agenda," Théo wrote in his initial email.

Théo stated that his reluctance to reveal his name is because his friends and children are unaware of his financial situation, and he does not want them to know about his bet on Trump. He described himself as a seasoned financial investor willing to take risks in the tens of millions with high confidence trades, but political betting is a new territory for him.

Théo said that earlier this year he started paying attention to U.S. polling data and noticed that many polls in 2016 and 2020 had underestimated Trump's support. He believes that if Trump surpasses expectations again this year, he will defeat Kamala Harris. Théo also mentioned the "Shy Trump Supporter Effect" — where some voters are unwilling to tell pollsters they support Trump.

"I know many Americans who will vote for Trump but won't tell you." Théo was skeptical of the adjustments made by polling agencies to correct the issues from 2016 and 2020, saying he "hasn't seen any substantive changes."

Theo, Who Made Massive Bet on Trump: Confidence and Concern

Within two weeks, Théo sent dozens of emails to a Wall Street Journal reporter criticizing what he saw as Harris-biased mainstream media polls. In a Zoom call, he claimed that media outlets supporting the Democrats were paving the way for social unrest by promoting fierce competition in the election, while he anticipated Trump's overwhelming victory.

Théo expressed surprise at the external scrutiny of his trades. He began placing low-profile bets in August, purchasing millions of dollars in Trump victory contracts under the username Fredi9999. At that time, the odds of Trump and Harris winning on Polymarket were roughly equal.

To avoid drastic price fluctuations, Théo spread his bets over multiple days. Nevertheless, as the betting amount increased, Théo noticed that other traders would steer clear of offering a quote when Fredi9999 was buying, making it difficult for him to bet at the desired price. Therefore, he created three additional accounts in September and October to disguise his buying behavior.

If Trump wins the election and secures a landslide victory as he expects, Théo could make over $80 million in profit, doubling his investment. His primary bet is on Trump winning the electoral votes, with additional bets of millions of dollars on Trump winning the popular vote — a scenario many observers consider highly unlikely. Furthermore, he has placed bets on Trump winning swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

If Harris wins the election, Théo could lose most of his $30 million — a significant portion of his liquid assets.

Due to his massive position on Polymarket, it's nearly impossible for him to close his position without affecting the market. According to Polymarket Analytics, the four "Trump Whales" accounts collectively hold approximately 25% of the Trump Electoral College win contract and over 40% of the popular vote win contract.

Théo admits to feeling nervous. He is confident in Trump's victory, putting the odds between 80% and 90%, but he also worries about last-minute breaking news affecting the bet outcome.

“Anything can happen at any time,” Théo said.

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