The Ebb and Flow of TON: A Folded Narrative of VC, Exchanges, and Traffic Revelry

Original Title: "The Rise and Fall of TON: An Overlapping Narrative of VC, Exchanges, and Traffic Frenzy—Starting with the Detention of Yescoin’s Founder"

Original Author: Su Yuchen

I. The "Fated Cycle" of Yescoin and TON

Recently, the detention of Yescoin's founder by "Uncle Hat" has been causing a stir on Twitter. Just a month ago, Zhang Chi was still sharing his entrepreneurial reflections, and millions of users had played the Telegram click mini-game last year.

Curiosity led me to some disclosed information which mentioned "missing the best token-issuing opportunity in May 2024," reminding me of the craze surrounding the TON ecosystem six months ago.

At that time, VCs and KOLs shouted claims like "TON will become the WeChat of Web3." Social media was flooded with the myth of "get rich quick with one click." Exchanges competed to list TON ecosystem projects, while retail investors frantically created Telegram burner accounts to "farm airdrops." Today, Yescoin’s plight serves as a mirror, reflecting the parabolic trajectory of TON's ecosystem—from its peak to its decline...

II. The Surge: The "Triad" of VCs, Exchanges, and Telegram

1. The VC Hype: A Masterful Design from Narrative to Pump In 2024, Pantera Capital loudly endorsed TON, branding it as the "gateway to Web3 super-apps," igniting market sentiment. Back then, the TVL on the TON blockchain skyrocketed 20-fold in two months to $600 million, with user growth outpacing Ethereum. VCs deeply understood the logic of "traffic equals valuation": Telegram's 1 billion user base is an unparalleled "gold mine" for any public chain.

2. Exchanges Rushing to Claim Territory: A Competitive Race to Harvest Traffic Exchanges like Binance and OKX quickly sensed the opportunity, racing to list TON ecosystem projects. Mini-games like Notcoin and Catizen exploded in popularity with their "zero-barrier + viral social interactions" features. Notcoin's user count surpassed 35 million, and Catizen gained 20 million users in two months, each reaching billion-dollar valuations upon launch. The phenomenon of Telegram users flooding into exchanges strongly resembled the viral growth patterns of Web2 platforms like Pinduoduo, providing exchanges with the much-needed "data growth" story for their financial reports.

3. Telegram's "Open Secret": Payments and Commercial Closed Loop

Telegram founder Durov has publicly supported TON multiple times, even launching the embedded wallet TON Space, completing the "messaging + payments + gaming" closed loop. Tether issued stablecoins on the TON blockchain, and the official team introduced a $5 million developer incentive program. Every step points to the ambition of transforming Telegram's social empire into a crypto economic ecosystem.

It is precisely the collaboration of these three elements that propelled the flourishing of the TON ecosystem.

Early participants who encountered projects like Notcoin or Dogs saw prices as high as $30 per single transaction. This wave also brought a windfall for a batch of TG account resellers focusing on cross-border e-commerce operations; some were able to make millions of dollars overnight. For me at that time, it was quite a shock: so, this is what TON ecosystem airdrops look like?

When Binance listed Notcoin and Dogs, the grand spectacle finally reached its climax—Binance ultimately launched TON itself, with the token price surging to $8 at its peak. This was quickly followed by the launch of notable projects like Catizen and Hamster.

However, as a deep participant of the TON ecosystem, I also realized an undeniable issue: the value of airdrops began to shrink rapidly after TON was listed on Binance. It was at this moment that I started shorting TON ecosystem tokens, and looking back now, it was an incredibly astute decision.

3. The Tide Recedes: Value Collapse After the Flow Dries Up

1. User Fatigue: From "National Carnival" to "A Complete Mess"

By the mid-to-late stages of the TON ecosystem, project teams and trading platforms co-launched "TON Ecosystem Month" campaigns, recycling the same old strategies: check-ins, referrals, and gas consumption. Trading platforms gradually woke up to the reality that the so-called "1 billion user pool" had a conversion rate of less than 1%, with most participants merely there to exploit the freebies. When the token price declined from its peak of $8 to below $3, even the most loyal community members began to sell off their holdings.

2. VC and Exchange Retreat: Narrative Collapse and Capital Exit

Early investors like Pantera quietly reduced their positions, and the frequency of exchanges launching TON-related projects sharply decreased. Analysts who once claimed "TON will surpass WeChat" began shifting their focus to AI and other emerging narratives. Meanwhile, Telegram had long earned substantial fees through ecosystem partnerships and achieved profitability by 2024, leaving retail investors to lament over the parabolic K-line chart: where is the promised Web3 WeChat?

The projects within the TON ecosystem have evolved from early-stage mini-games like Catizen and Hamster into an increasing number of mini-games and DeFi applications. However, these projects are essentially just rebranded versions with no substantive innovation.

As a witness to this journey, I watched the TON ecosystem's valuation plummet from $1 billion to $100 million, and eventually to just a few million dollars in market cap. After the Hamster project, Binance never listed another TON ecosystem project again. It was like watching a grand mansion rise and host guests in splendor, only to see it crumble to ruins.

Conclusion: Awakening from the Dream, Continuing to Chase the Trend

When the TON ecosystem was just getting started, I purchased 32 TON tokens, hoping they would allow me to fully experience the rise of Telegram and its evolution into a super app akin to a web3 version of WeChat. I envisioned the TON wallet balance appreciating in value like gold.

But now, the dream has ended. It opened my eyes to the VC's scythe, the magic of traffic manipulation by exchanges, and the collective frenzy induced by the temptation of overnight riches. The TON story isn’t over yet. Perhaps, as Durov said, "Telegram always belongs to the rebels."

The next rebellion, however, should not betray our own sense of rationality. But can you and I sense the winds of change earlier than the VCs? Can we press the button faster than the exchanges?