From the "Crime Cycle" to Value Reversion, Outlook on the Four Major Opportunities in the 2026 Crypto Market

Original Article Title: Make Revenue, Not Crime | My 2026 Crypto Plan

Original Article Author: Poopman, Crypto Researcher

Original Article Translation: DeepC TechFlow

Ansem has declared the market's peak, with CT referring to this cycle as "crime."

Projects with high FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) and no real-world use case have drained the last penny from the crypto space. The sale of Memecoins has tarnished the reputation of the crypto industry in the public eye.

Even worse, almost no funds have been reinvested back into the ecosystem.

On the other hand, almost all airdrops have devolved into "pump and dump" schemes. Token Generation Events (TGEs) seem to exist solely to provide early participants and teams with exit liquidity.

HODLers and long-term investors are suffering, and most altcoins have never recovered.

The bubble is bursting, token prices are plummeting, and people are enraged.

Does this mean it's all over?

Difficult times create strong men.

To be fair, 2025 was not a terrible year.

We witnessed the birth of many excellent projects. Projects like Hyperliquid, MetaDAO, Pump.fun, Pendle, and FomoApp have shown that there are still true builders in this space striving to drive development in the right way.

This was a necessary "purge" to rid the space of bad actors.

We are reflecting and will continue to improve.

Now, in order to attract more capital inflow and users, we need to demonstrate more real-world use cases, genuine business models, and revenue streams that can bring real value to tokens. I believe this is the direction the industry should take in 2026.

2025: The Year of Stablecoins, PerpDex, and DAT

Maturing of Stablecoins

In July 2025, the Genius Act was officially signed, marking the birth of the first regulatory framework for payment stablecoins, requiring stablecoins to be backed by 100% cash or short-term government bonds.

Since then, Traditional Finance (TradFi) interest in the stablecoin space has been growing rapidly, with stablecoin net inflows surpassing $100 billion just this year, making it the strongest year in stablecoin history.

RWA.xyz

Institutions have shown a strong preference for stablecoins and believe in their significant potential to replace traditional payment systems, reasons include:

· Lower-cost and more efficient cross-border transactions

· Instant settlement

· Low transaction fees

· 24/7 availability

· Hedging against local currency volatility

· On-chain transparency

We have witnessed major acquisitions by tech giants (such as Stripe acquiring Bridge and Privy), Circle's IPO being oversubscribed, and several top banks collectively expressing interest in launching their own stablecoins.

All these indicate that over the past year, stablecoins have indeed been moving towards maturity.

Stablewatch

Aside from payments, another key use case for stablecoins is earning permissionless yield, which we refer to as Yield Bearing Stablecoin (YBS).

This year, the total supply of YBS has actually doubled, reaching $12.5 billion, driven mainly by yield providers such as BlackRock BUIDL, Ethena, and sUSDs.

Although the growth has been very rapid, recent events like the Stream Finance incident and overall poor performance in the crypto market have impacted market sentiment and decreased the yield rates of these products.

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Retail investors had high expectations for these projects' launch FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) and were also eagerly anticipating airdrop rewards, leading to the "Points War" we see today.

While perpetual decentralized exchange platforms can achieve high profitability, Hyperliquid chose to repurchase $HYPE through an "Assistance Fund" to reinject profits back into the token (with a repurchase amount cumulatively reaching 3.6% of the total supply).

This repurchase mechanism, by providing actual value backflow, has become a key driver of the token's success, effectively pioneering the trend of the "Buyback Metaverse" - prompting investors to start demanding stronger value anchoring rather than governance tokens with high FDV but no practical use.

DAT (Digital Asset Treasury):

Thanks to Trump's pro-crypto stance, we have seen a significant inflow of institutional and Wall Street funds into the crypto space.

The inspiration for DAT comes from MicroStrategy's strategy and has become one of the primary ways for Traditional Finance (TradFi) to indirectly access crypto assets.

In the past year, approximately 76 new DATs have been added. Currently, DAT treasuries collectively hold $137 billion worth of crypto assets. Of these, over 82% are Bitcoin (BTC), about 13% are Ethereum (ETH), and the rest are scattered among various altcoins.

Refer to the chart below:

Bitmine (BMNR)

Bitmine (BMNR) introduced by Tom Lee became a standout highlight in this DAT trend and emerged as the largest ETH buyer among all DAT participants.

However, despite early attention, most DAT stocks experienced a "pump and dump" situation within the first 10 days. Since October 10, the funds flowing into DATs have plummeted by 90% compared to July levels, with most DATs' Net Asset Value (mNAV) falling below 1, indicating that the premium has disappeared, signaling the end of the DAT frenzy.

During this cycle, we learned the following:

· Blockchain needs more real-world applications.

· The primary use case in the crypto space is still transactions, yield, and payments.

· Nowadays, people are more inclined to choose protocols with fee-generating potential rather than just decentralization (Source: @EbisuEthan).

· Most tokens need stronger value anchors tied to protocol fundamentals to protect and reward long-term holders.

· A more mature regulatory and legislative environment will provide greater confidence for builders and talent to join the space.

· Information has become a tradable asset on the internet (Source: PM, Kaito).

· New Layer 1/Layer 2 projects without a clear positioning or competitive advantage will gradually be phased out.

So, what's next?

2026: The Year of Predictive Markets, More Stablecoins, More Mobile Apps, More Real Income

I believe that in 2026, the crypto space will evolve in the following four directions:

· Prediction Markets

· More stablecoin payment services

· Greater adoption of mobile DApps

· More realization of real income

Still All About Prediction Markets

Undoubtedly, prediction markets have become one of the hottest tracks in the crypto space.

“Bet on anything”

“90% accuracy in predicting real-world outcomes”

“Participants bring their own risk”

These headlines have attracted a lot of attention, and the fundamentals of prediction markets are equally compelling.

As of the time of writing, the total weekly trading volume of prediction markets has exceeded the peak of the election period (even if the total volume at that time included wash trading).

Today, giants like Polymarket and Kalshi have completely dominated distribution channels and liquidity, making it nearly impossible for competitors lacking significant differentiation to gain meaningful market share (excluding Opinion Lab).

Institutions are also entering the fray, with Polymarket receiving investment from ICE at an $8 billion valuation, and its secondary market valuation reaching $120–150 billion. Meanwhile, Kalshi completed its Series E funding at a $11 billion valuation.

This momentum is unstoppable.

Furthermore, with the upcoming $POLY token, impending IPO, and mainstream distribution channels through platforms like Robinhood and Google Search, the prediction market is poised to become one of the key narratives of 2026.

That said, the prediction market still has plenty of room for improvement, such as optimizing result resolution and dispute resolution mechanisms, developing methods to counter malicious traffic, and maintaining user engagement over a long feedback loop, all of which need further enhancement.

Beyond the dominant market players, we can also expect to see the emergence of new, more personalized prediction markets, such as @BentoDotFun.

Stablecoin Payment Space

With the introduction of the "Genius Bill," institutional interest and activity in stablecoin payments have surged, becoming a key driver in advancing their widespread adoption.

Over the past year, the monthly trading volume of stablecoins has climbed to nearly $30 trillion, and adoption rates are rapidly increasing. While this may not be a perfect measure, it already demonstrates a significant uptick in stablecoin usage post-"Genius Bill" and the European MiCA framework.

On the other hand, Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe are all actively embracing stablecoin payments, whether by supporting stablecoin spending through traditional payment networks or partnering with centralized exchanges (CEXs) like Mastercard's collaboration with OKX Pay. Now, merchants can opt to accept stablecoin payments, irrespective of customer payment preferences, showcasing the confidence and adaptability of Web2 incumbents in this asset class.

Simultaneously, crypto-native banking services like Etherfi and Ready (formerly Argent) have started offering card products, enabling users to spend stablecoins directly.

Take Etherfi, for instance, where the daily spending average has steadily risen to over $1 million, showing no signs of slowing down.

Etherfi

However, we cannot ignore some of the challenges that the emerging crypto-native banks still face, such as high customer acquisition costs (CAC) and the difficulty in earning interest on deposited funds due to users self-custodying assets.

Some potential solutions include offering in-app token swap functionality or repackaging yield products to sell as financial services to users.

With payment-focused chains like @tempo and @Plasma gaining momentum, I expect significant growth in the payment space, especially propelled by the distribution capabilities and brand influence brought by Stripe and Paradigm.

Mobile App Adoption

Smartphones are becoming increasingly ubiquitous globally, with the younger generation driving the shift towards digital payments.

Currently, nearly 10% of global daily transactions are conducted via mobile devices, with Southeast Asia leading this trend due to its "mobile-first" culture.

Global Payment Method Rankings

This represents a fundamental behavioral shift in traditional payment networks. I believe that as the mobile transaction infrastructure has significantly improved compared to a few years ago, this shift will naturally extend to the crypto space.

Do you remember account abstraction in tools like Privy, unified interfaces, and mobile SDKs?

Today's mobile user onboarding experience is smoother than it was two years ago.

According to a16z Crypto's research, the number of crypto mobile wallet users has grown by 23% year over year, and this trend has yet to show any signs of slowing down.

In addition to the ever-changing consumption habits of Gen Z, we are also seeing a surge in more native mobile dApps by 2025.

For example, Fomo App, as a social trading application, has attracted a large number of new users with its intuitive and unified user experience, allowing anyone to easily participate in token trading even without prior knowledge.

Developed in just 6 months, the app achieved a daily average trading volume of $3 million and peaked at $13 million in October.

With the rise of FOMO, major players like Aave and Polymarket have also started prioritizing mobile-first savings and betting experiences. Meanwhile, newcomers like @sproutfi_xyz are exploring a mobile-centric yield model.

With the continued growth of mobile behavior, I expect mobile dApps to be one of the fastest-growing areas in 2026.

Give Me More Revenue

One of the key reasons people struggle to believe in this cycle is simple:

Most tokens listed on major exchanges still generate little to no meaningful revenue, and even if they do, they lack value anchoring with their token or "share." Once the narrative fades, these tokens fail to attract sustainable buyers, often resulting in only one direction — downward.

Evidently, the crypto industry relies too heavily on speculation and lacks focus on real business fundamentals.

Most DeFi projects have fallen into the trap of designing a "Ponzi scheme" to drive early adoption, but each time, the focus shifts to how to sell off after the Token Generation Event (TGE), rather than building a lasting product.

Currently, only 60 protocols have generated over $1 million in revenue within 30 days. In comparison, in Web2, there are approximately 5000–7000 IT companies reaching this revenue level monthly.

Fortunately, a shift began in 2025 under Trump's pro-crypto policies. These policies made profit-sharing possible and helped address the long-standing issue of token value anchoring.

Projects like Hyperliquid, Pump, Uniswap, Aave, among others, have proactively focused on product and revenue growth. They understand that crypto is an asset-holding-centric ecosystem that inherently requires active value flowback.

This is why buybacks became such a powerful value anchoring tool in 2025, as it is one of the clearest signals of alignment of team and investor interests.

So, which businesses have generated the strongest revenue?

The primary use case of crypto is still transactions, yield, and payments.

However, due to the cost compression of blockchain infrastructure, chain revenue is expected to decrease by about 40% this year. In contrast, decentralized exchanges (DEXes), trading platforms, wallets, trading terminals, and applications have emerged as the biggest winners, growing by 113%!

Please bet more on applications and DEXes.

If you still don't believe it, according to research by 1kx, we are actually experiencing the peak transfer of value to token holders in crypto history. See the data below:

Summary

The crypto industry is not ending; it is evolving. We are undergoing a market-needed "purge" that will make the crypto ecosystem better than ever and even elevate it tenfold.

Those who can survive, achieve real-world utility, generate real income, and create tokens with actual utility or value flowback will ultimately emerge as the biggest winners.

2026 will be a critical year.

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