The Hormuz Strait saw a 10% daily passage average, well below the pre-conflict level of 70% as of the 7th, with a new account deposit of $18k predicting a return to normalcy within one month.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has placed a $18.8k "Yes" bet on "Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by August 31st?" The average buy-in probability is 15.5%, while the current "Yes" probability is 13.5%.

On July 26, the US and Iran suspended mutual attacks for a second consecutive day; the US stated it is leaving room for negotiations, while Iran mentioned progress in technical talks with Oman regarding the safe passage through the strait.

The latest IMF PortWatch data has been updated to July 19, publicly collated, showing only 15 ships passed through that day, with a 7-day moving average of 12.1. On the same day, the AP also reported that commercial shipping in the strait hit a three-week low, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues, with 12 ships rerouted, 2 ships disabled, and 2 ships boarded for inspection.

Account:
0x7b48523f03e22dcdb8dd80a8c4b07d860ae621b2

Total Investment: $18.8k
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