An 84% Win Rate in Price Guessing seems too slow to make money, so a certain account heavily invested $1 million, predicting that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates early in the morning.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, one savvy investor placed $535.7k on "Will the Fed Reserve keep interest rates unchanged this month?" and $534.4k on "Will the Fed Reserve raise interest rates by 25 basis points this month?"

Address 0x0feb1bf9 invested $536k. With 19 settled trades, the total profit is $28.7k. This trade is 442 times the median of its historical trades.

This account previously earned $33k with an 84% success rate by speculating on Bitcoin price movements. For this Fed decision, the account significantly increased its historical trade median input by hundreds of times, with a million-dollar position in the "No Hike" direction. If the Fed decides not to raise interest rates, this account stands to make a profit of $369k.

The Fed will announce its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET on July 29th (2:00 AM on July 30th, Beijing time). Most economists expect the federal funds rate target range to remain at 3.50%-3.75%. The US June CPI saw a year-on-year growth rate drop from 4.2% to 3.5%, with core CPI falling to 2.6%. The June unemployment rate was 4.2%, with nonfarm payrolls adding 57k jobs. Recent oil price fluctuations continue to impact inflation prospects, and some policymakers may support a rate hike at this meeting.

The semiconductor market experienced a significant drop ahead of the Fed decision. On the 28th, Samsung Electronics fell by 13.4%, SK Hynix fell by 14.7%, and the South Korean KOSPI index dropped by 10.8%. After SK Hynix reported record quarterly profits, its stock price continued to fall by 13% today. Fitch on the same day adjusted the AI market outlook for global credit risk, noting that major tech companies' AI capital expenditure is expected to reach $700B this year. US long-term Treasury bond yields and AI enterprise financing costs remain high, and the current interest rate environment is testing the funding sources and future returns of data center investments.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of events but may engage in profit-taking and stop-loss actions at a certain point after opening positions.

Account:
0x0feb1bf966bc7f954c2da0293ae2fdc572c5db5d

Total Investment: $1.27M
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