In 48 hours, 24 attacks were launched, but Ukraine's smart money predicted that Russia would not capture Kherson.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a sharp bettor has put in $426 on "Will Russia fully occupy Khulaypole by September 30th?" on the "No" side, with an average buy-in probability of 17.5% and the current "Yes" probability at 80.0%.
leCommissaire has also invested $426, with the most relevant section being the Ukraine map, with a net profit of $82.1k in that section. Out of 533 settled trades in that section, the win rate is 388/533 (73%), with 164 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.101-$0.25), the median historical investment amount is $70.
Per the event rules, Russia must physically control all areas within the town limits of Khulaypole by September 30, 2026, 23:59 (ET). The ISW Battlefield Map is the primary reference for these rules, and the entire area must be shown as Russian-controlled, Russian-advanced, or under Russian occupation in the past 24 hours. The map markings must also persist until the next full daily update. Russian penetration zones do not meet the criteria. Control formed through negotiations can be recognized, and sovereignty claims and temporary map errors will not trigger recognition.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported on July 28 that the Russian military carried out 11 attacks the day before on Vozdvyzhivka, Kosivtseve, Staroukrainka, Tsvitkove, Luhivske, and Charivne. On July 28, the Russian military launched 13 attacks in the direction of Khulaypole, with targets expanding to Novoselivka and Zaliznychne. At the time of the report, two ongoing battles were still taking place. In the past 48 hours, the Russian military launched a total of 24 attacks.
In a report on the same day, ISW stated that a Russian military blogger acknowledged that the Ukrainian forces had made advances in the village of Solodke north of Khulaypole and east of the village. The Ukrainian General Staff did not report any new territorial gains by the Russian military in that direction on the same day. The current fighting remains focused on settlements around Khulaypole.
Disclaimer: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss actions at a certain point after opening a position.
Account:
0x9238743eeba8bbfe9e85ac7ba2e1e3d77877b73e
Total Investment: $426
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