Oman Proposes Voluntary Fee Plan, Houthis' Smart Money Predicts Iran Will Not Charge Fees

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor has placed a $915 bet on "Will Iran collect the Hormuz fee by October 31st?" with an average buy-in probability of 45.4%. The current probability for "Yes" is 55.5%.

Address 0x879247bf has wagered $915 and is most active in the Hormuz Strait category on this market, with a net profit of $14.1k. Out of 22 settled trades in this category, their win rate is 18/22 (82%), with 3 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.501-$0.55), the median historical investment amount is $1.5k.

Iran and Oman are still negotiating the future management of the Hormuz Strait. On the 28th, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi proposed an interim passage plan, requesting that routes entering and partially exiting the Persian Gulf pass through Iranian waters. Iran has ceased to recognize the previous maritime organization's established transit lanes and has stated that if Oman rejects Iran's proposal, the strait will remain closed. Iran has not yet disclosed the universal fee system's amount, start date, and collection procedure.

Oman has submitted a regional management proposal to Iran, backed by Gulf nations' support. The plan envisions joint management of the strait by Iran, Oman, and regional countries, with shipping companies voluntarily contributing to a fund. The funds will be used for buoy maintenance, environmental protection, and rescue services. U.S. officials indicate that the coordinating agreement under discussion will not include tolls or fees. The International Maritime Organization has requested all parties to submit the new routes and traffic management measures for member state review.

Only 5 cargo ships passed through the Hormuz Strait on the 28th. Today, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced that 3 oil tankers were forced to halt due to their use of a route deemed illegal by Iran. The notification did not specify any fee requirements.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss at a certain point after opening a position.

Account:
0x879247bf7570a40d193dd3bb9118820e0b194174

Total Investment: $915
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