Goldman Sachs: Fed Rate Hike Probability One-Third, Could Face Largest Unrate Cut Since 1997

July 29th, Goldman Sachs stated that due to the current pricing in the interest rate futures market, the probability of the Fed raising rates today is one-third. Regardless of the Fed's ultimate decision, it will be the largest "surprise" in a non-rate-cut meeting since 1997.

If the Fed raises rates, it will be the "largest meeting-day surprise since the Fed began issuing statements announcing policy rate changes, excluding rate cuts."