「Whale Watching」 XM39 Trader Liquidates to Dodge Oil Plunge, Rebuilds $10 Million Long Position After "Halt Trading" News

August 3rd, according to Hyperinsight Monitoring, on July 31st, the predictive market trader "xm39" associated address liquidated all 82,700 barrels of crude oil (CL) long positions on Hyperliquid in the evening, with a transaction volume of approximately $6.904 million, a liquidation average price of $83.52, realizing a profit of approximately $97,000. Subsequently, the address maintained a crude oil short position for two days.

This exit occurred just before a signal of geopolitical tension easing, as "Trump later stated a halt to the original plan to strike Iran and proposed to resume negotiations on issues such as opening the Strait of Hormuz" about a day earlier. After this news landed, WTI crude oil fell more than 9% to $80 during the Asian session, hitting a three-week low.

Based on the closed position of 82,700 contracts, the liquidation average price, and the corresponding current price, a simple calculation shows that this exit spared about $317,000 in subsequent mark-to-market drawdown.

Shortly after the related news disclosure, xm39 rebuilt a long position on Sunday noon, first buying 38,400 contracts at an average price of $81.08; during this morning's continued oil price decline, added 86,700 contracts at an average price of $79.93.

As of the time of writing, the address is currently 20x leveraged long 125,100 barrels of crude oil, with a position value of approximately $9.970 million, a comprehensive average entry price of $80.28, an unrealized loss of approximately $75,000 (-15.0%); the liquidation price is $78.12, only about $1.56 away from the current price.

At the same time, the wallet controlled by the same entity at Polymarket continued to add to the "United States Will Invade Iran by 2027" Yes position this morning, buying 38,000 contracts at an average price of $0.20, investing approximately $7,600.

The related position has increased to 937,700 contracts, with a total cost of approximately $254,700; based on the current quote of $0.205, the position value is approximately $192,200, with an unrealized loss of about $62,500, a loss of approximately 24.5%.

Exiting before the oil price plummet, then re-entering a long position on crude oil after the geopolitical easing news, xm39 clearly did not fully embrace the current easing narrative. However, while its repeated trading actions often corresponded to macro news events, the overall outcome did not yield significant profits.