Memory Chip Super Cycle Could Extend Until 2030, Capital Expenditure of Three Major Memory Giants to Reach $146 Billion in 2027

August 4th, according to the JoongAng Ilbo report, the storage chip supercycle may be extended from the originally expected 2028 to between 2029 and 2030. While Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron are significantly increasing AI-related production capacity investments, it usually takes 3 to 5 years from factory construction, equipment installation to actual output formation, making it difficult to alleviate short-term supply shortages.

Deloitte predicts that the capital expenditure of the three companies in 2027 will reach $146 billion, about 3.4 times the $43 billion in 2024, accounting for 56% of the global semiconductor capital expenditure of $260 billion in 2027. However, Deloitte believes that even if storage manufacturers ramp up production quickly, the additional supply is still unlikely to be significantly released before 2029 to 2030.

SemiAnalysis data shows that the proportion of storage procurement in the capital expenditure of hyperscale cloud service providers, which has increased from 8% in 2023 to 2024 to 30% in 2026, may further increase to 36% in 2027. Based on the $1.14 trillion capital expenditure of hyperscale cloud service providers in 2027, about $410 billion will be used to purchase storage products. It is estimated that DRAM prices will more than double in 2026 and still record double-digit growth in 2027, while the structural shortage of HBM may continue until 2027.

SK Hynix CEO Lee Seok-hee previously stated that 2027 may be the most supply-constrained year in the industry's history, and customer demand may still exceed supply capabilities after 2030. Samsung Electronics also mentioned that customers needing to build large-scale AI infrastructure after 2029 are continuously requesting multi-year supply contracts.