Qwen3.8-Max Airdrops to 5th in the World, AI Smart Money Predicts Domestic Model to Reach Top of Arena Within the Year
According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor has placed a $1.1k bet on "Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31st?" with an average buy-in probability of 12.0%. The current probability for "Yes" is 9.5%.
dry-september has invested $1.1k, with the top relevant category in this market being Artificial Intelligence, resulting in a net profit of $3.9k. Out of 22 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 16/22 (73%), with 2 trades having a buy-in price below $0.8 and a sell-out price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.051-$0.2), the median historical investment amount is $584.
As of now, the top 4 positions on the Arena. AI Text Arena leaderboard are all held by Anthropic models. claude-opus-5-max leads with 1507±9 points. Alibaba's qwen3.8-max ranks 5th with 1496±10 points, currently marked as Preliminary, with a cumulative 3,327 votes. It is the highest-ranked Chinese company model on the leaderboard.
Alibaba unveiled Qwen3.8-Max on August 3rd. The model features 24 trillion parameters, supports text, image, and video input, and can process up to 1 million tokens. The model utilizes a MoE architecture, with each request invoking around 950 billion parameters. Qwen3.8-Max currently ranks 2nd globally in the Arena. AI Vision Models. Alibaba has stated that the model is expected to be officially released next week.
DeepSeek officially launched V4-Flash on July 31st and is continuing to develop V4-Pro, with no official release date announced yet. Moonshot released Kimi K3 with 28 trillion parameters on July 17th. This model previously ranked first in Arena. AI's web interface development test. Moonshot is currently utilizing approximately 20,000 Nvidia Hopper series chips through a computational agreement with Alibaba and is seeking more chips to train the next generation models.
Disclaimer: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur, and there may be instances of taking profits or stop-loss at a certain point after opening a position.
Account:
0xeb77593d1187a2d01c22fb24567b21cddd214e6b
Total Investment: $1.1k
---------------------------------
See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN