Iran and Oman Advance Interim Reopening Framework, Smart Money Predicts Resumption of Hormuz Strait Traffic Within the Year

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 4 clever funds have entered $62.1k on the question "Will the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by December 31, 2026?" with an average buy probability of 58.3%. The current "Yes" probability is 62.5%.

Herodoto has invested $18.8k, with the top relevant category in this market being Geopolitics, with a net profit of $593k. Out of 592 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 387/592 (65%), including 53 trades with a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.501-$0.65), the historical median investment amount is $1.2k, and this investment is 15.3 times that median.
Newshound has invested $15.5k, with the top relevant category in this market being Politics, with a net profit of $55.7k. Out of 1321 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 770/1321 (58%), including 415 trades with a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.501-$0.65), the historical median investment amount is $112, and this investment is 138.2 times that median.
mombil has invested $5.9k, with the top relevant category in this market being Politics, with a net profit of $551k. Out of 2343 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 1509/2343 (64%), including 736 trades with a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.501-$0.65), the historical median investment amount is $453, and this investment is 13.0 times that median.
mr.ozi has invested $21.9k, with the top relevant category in this market being Politics, with a net profit of $492k. Out of 1774 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 1170/1774 (66%), including 495 trades with a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.501-$0.65), the historical median investment amount is $868, and this investment is 25.2 times that median.

Today, Reuters reported that the U.S., Iran, and Oman are advancing a 60-day interim arrangement. The proposed plan allows vessels to pass through Iranian waters into the Persian Gulf and exit through Omani waters. No tolls will be collected during the agreement period, and all parties plan to clear the central channel of mines within 30 days. The agreement has not been formally announced yet.

On August 4th, Qatar stated that mediation for the U.S.-Iran war has entered a deep stage. Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman are coordinating a draft agreement. Trump has postponed a new large-scale attack on Iran. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz have made progress, but the final agreement is still pending. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said they are currently discussing a safe passage arrangement with Oman.

Iran demands to manage vessels entering the Persian Gulf and receive departure information. Iran also demands the U.S. to cease military actions and lift the naval blockade on Iranian ports. The U.S. government refuses long-term Iranian control of international waterways and the collection of tolls. The rights to manage the strait, port blockades, and the U.S.-Iran ceasefire arrangement are still the issues that need to be addressed for a full restoration of normal traffic.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event and may engage in profit-taking and stop-loss at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1
0x5e73afb20c2b27caccdaad9e49b97fd336576697
0x68c24bf4a8ad4d79a6fe4b8eec6f93a02dfd1711
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546

Total Investment: $62.1k
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