STRC reached $94.23 during intraday trading, Smart Money in MicroStrategy Sector Predicts $100 by October

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor placed a $1.0k bet on "Will STRC reach $100 by September 30th?" with an average buying probability of 24.2%. The current probability for "Yes" is 33.5%.

kukubaja invested $1.0k, and the most relevant sector to this market is MicroStrategy, with a net profit of $73.8k. Out of 145 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 102/145 (70%), with 18 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.151-$0.3), the median of historical investment amounts is $52, and this investment is 20.0 times that median.

As of the close on August 4th, Strategy's variable-dividend perpetual preferred stock STRC was priced at $92.53, reaching a high of $94.23 during the trading day. The set amount per share for STRC is $100, leading to a difference of about 8.1% based on the closing price. Strategy CEO Phong Le stated that the company aims for STRC to trade long-term in the $99-$100 range and plans to continue buybacks when the stock price is below $100.

From July 27th to August 2nd, Strategy repurchased 912,143 shares of STRC, spending approximately $81.2 million. The company sold 1,638 bitcoins for around $104.73 million, using $52.3 million for STRC buybacks. Strategy also sold 3,011,361 shares of common stock MSTR, allocating $28.9 million for STRC repurchases. As of August 3rd, there is still $893.8 million available for the preferred stock buyback program.

Strategy will maintain STRC's annualized dividend yield at 12% and stated that the current rate will continue until STRC trades steadily near $100. The company has announced two semi-monthly dividends of $0.50 per share, with payment dates on August 31st and September 15th. Strategy's USD reserves have increased to $4 billion to support preferred stock dividends and debt interest payments.

Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not betting on the actual outcome of the event and may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior after opening a position at a certain point.

Account:
0xa0c37cb0587b0dd1542f794bcfa345762bba5b9a

Total Investment: $1.0k
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