Analysis: Bitcoin in August may remain in the $58,000 to $67,000 range, with a breakthrough still requiring macro and funding catalysts

August 5th, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr released the August Bitcoin market outlook, stating that BTC is currently retracing about 50% from its all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025, and the price has approached the on-chain average cost of holding. It is expected that in August, BTC will likely maintain a volatile trend.

The report suggests that the most likely scenario for August (with a probability of around 55%) is for BTC to trade in the range of $57,700 to $67,000, ending the month around $60,000 to $64,000. The bearish scenario (30% probability) is to drop below $57,700 and further test the on-chain realized price of around $52,800. The bullish scenario (15% probability) requires holding above $67,000, supported by continuous ETF inflows, a drop in the US Treasury bond yields, a weakening US Dollar, and a target price range of $71,000 to $74,000.

The current valuation is close to the on-chain cost area, with net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs providing support to the market. However, a high-interest rate environment, US Treasury bond yields remaining high, and a relatively strong US Dollar continue to limit the upside potential of risk assets. The report also highlights the importance of monitoring macro events in August such as the US non-farm payroll, CPI, Jackson Hole Fed annual symposium, and their impact on market liquidity.