Citrini's View: Short-term Bearish on Storage, Bullish on Optical Interconnect, Storage Prices Likely Peaked in the Second Quarter as Market Consensus Solidifies

August 8th. Analyst Jukan from Citrini posted that the market will take a short-term direction of "bearish on storage, bullish on optical interconnect," and some hedge funds have started to execute this strategy. The three main reasons are as follows:

South Korea's leveraged ETF has basically failed, and limited partners' concentrated redemptions have brought additional selling pressure;

NVIDIA is weakening the HBM configuration of Rubin Ultra and instead using optical interconnect to connect multiple racks. Even if the performance of a single rack does not improve, the cluster level can still maintain an advantage. Whether the weakening of HBM is a supply issue or a demand issue, this logic holds true;

The market has formed a consensus that storage prices will peak in the next two quarters.

Jukan clearly stated that he remains bullish on storage in the medium to long term, but slightly bearish in the short term, and currently does not have any storage positions.