Bitunix Analyst: NFP Miss Shock and US-Japan Intervention Lead to Global Asset Repricing Under Renewed "High Funding Cost" Constraint

August 11th. In July, the U.S. unexpectedly lost 23,000 non-farm jobs, marking the first negative growth since February this year. Although the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, the combined revisions to the May and June non-farm payrolls indicated a significant weakening in the resilience of the U.S. labor market. This has made the Federal Reserve's policy trade-off between inflation and employment more complicated, especially as recent official disagreements on interest rate hikes have widened. The risk premium of monetary policy will continue to be reflected in U.S. bond yields and the valuation of dollar-denominated assets.

At the same time, the Bank of Japan's July meeting minutes released a stronger signal for a rate hike, with some board members believing that a more flexible or even more aggressive policy normalization approach should be taken. The weakness of the yen has prompted a rare joint intervention in the foreign exchange market by Japan and the U.S., indicating that the exchange rate issue is no longer just a domestic policy topic for Japan but is gradually affecting U.S. bond holders, dollar liquidity, and global arbitrage trading structures. If expectations for future rate hikes in Japan further heat up, the cost of yen carry trades may rise, potentially increasing the volatility of overvalued, highly leveraged assets.

U.S. bonds are in another critical position. Recent actions from the Fed, such as supporting yen intervention, discussing the FIMA liquidity tool, and adjusting the language around long bond issuances, all point to reducing pressure in the long-end U.S. Treasury market. However, in an environment where the fiscal deficit, inflation, and energy costs remain elevated, the support that the Treasury Department can provide is limited. What truly determines long-term yields is still the path of inflation, Fed policy, and the market's pricing of U.S. fiscal sustainability.

The industrial sector presents a completely different picture. Demand for SpaceX, AI servers, HBM, and NAND remains high, with continued expansion in corporate capital expenditure. However, after disappointing earnings reports from SanDisk and Western Digital, their stock prices plummeted, reflecting that the issue is no longer just about "revenue growth" but about whether companies can continue to surpass already high market expectations. The core contradiction in the AI industry continues to focus on capital efficiency and valuation resilience.

Therefore, what the market truly needs to observe this week is not just individual data points, but whether the cooling of employment can offset the pressure on long-term rates from inflation and fiscal factors, and whether high capital expenditure in AI can continue to translate into cash flow substantial enough to support lofty valuations. The U.S. CPI data for July, to be released on Wednesday, will be a crucial validation point. If inflation remains sticky, weak non-farm payrolls may not be sufficient to bring about sustained downward pressure on interest rates; conversely, if inflation and employment cool simultaneously, the pressure of high rates on global risk assets may have a chance for substantial relief.

Overall, global assets remain in an environment of "high fiscal demand, high capital expenditure, and high cost of funds," and volatility and differentiation between assets are expected to remain elevated.