Cannes Winner, Intensifying Award Season, Film Category Sweeps All Eight Battles, Account Predicts "Black Swan" Has No Hope for Oscar Adapted Screenplay
According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a smart money has invested $1.7k in "Will 'The Black Ball' Win the 99th Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay?", with an average buying probability of 71.9%. The current probability of "Yes" is 21.5%.
IndianBieber has invested $1.7k, and the best-related category in this market is movies, with a net profit of $959. In this category, out of 8 settled trades, the success rate is 8/8 (100%), with 6 trades where the buying price was less than $0.8 and the selling price was greater than $0.95.
The nominations for the 99th Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay will be announced on January 21, 2027, and the award ceremony will be held on March 14, 2027. According to market rules, 'The Black Ball' must ultimately win the award for the market to settle as "Yes".
'The Black Ball' (La Bola Negra) is based on Federico García Lorca's unfinished work and the Coñejo play 'Stone of Darkness'. On August 10, Next Best Picture ranked it as the top prediction for Best Adapted Screenplay, with community predictions giving it around a 50% chance of winning and an 86% chance of being nominated.
On August 4, Netflix announced that 'The Black Ball' will premiere in theaters in the United States and Canada on October 16 and be available on streaming on December 2; Vulture reported the same day that this marks Netflix's longest-ever 47-day theatrical window. The film has also been selected for the special presentation section of the Toronto International Film Festival, where Penélope Cruz will receive a tribute award.
The logic behind the "No" side is that Awards Daily's August 7 Adapted Screenplay predictions placed 'The Odyssey' and 'Operation Rescue' ahead of 'The Black Ball'; AwardsWatch believes Christopher Nolan's 'The Odyssey' combines a large-scale production with character narrative, making the adapted screenplay equally competitive. On the other hand, some Cannes feedback also indicates that 'The Black Ball' is not without controversy: Next Best Picture's reviews, although favorable, mention segments in the runtime that could be cut; Ioncinema's Cannes review team showed clear differences in opinion on the film.
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