The US and Iran continue to negotiate lifting sanctions, with Smart Money predicting the US to announce the end of sanctions on Iran before November.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, two sharp bettors have placed a total of $4.1k on "Will the U.S. lift sanctions on Iran by October 31, 2026?" with an average buy-in probability of 71.5%. The current probability for "Yes" stands at 66.5%.

Jest55 has invested $1.7k, with Iran being the most relevant category in this market, netting $26.0k in profits. Out of Jest55's 188 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 156/188 (83%), with 42 trades having a buy-in price below $0.8 and a sell-out price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $761.
Tenebrus7 has invested $2.3k, with Trump being the most relevant category in this market, netting $78.7k in profits. Out of Tenebrus7's 1720 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 1210/1720 (70%), with 326 trades having a buy-in price below $0.8 and a sell-out price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.651-$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $333.

In mid-July, the U.S. reinstated a maritime blockade targeting Iranian ports and related shipping. A U.S. official mentioned that once the agreement to restore commercial shipping is officially announced, the U.S. will lift the blockade on Iranian ports, contingent on Iran fulfilling its agreement commitments.

Iran and Oman have reached the final stages of an agreement to establish a new maritime channel in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has demanded the U.S. lift the maritime blockade and sanctions, release frozen assets, and pay war reparations. The U.S. and Iran are currently exchanging information through intermediaries, with no formal resumption of talks yet and no immediate timetable for the opening of the strait through the channel agreement.

On August 10, Trump declared that the U.S. would also seek compensation from Iran for casualties. A Reuters survey indicates that after the U.S. resumed sanctions, Iranian oil shipments slowed once more. Following Iran's announcement of additional conditions to resume shipping, Brent crude briefly rose to $85.38 per barrel, with the market closely monitoring whether the U.S. and Iran can finalize the arrangements for lifting the blockade and resuming shipping.
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