Anthropic IPO Valuation Expected to Increase, Financial Sector Accounts for 81% Win Rate in Predicting Its First Day Closing Market Cap Range
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the Polymarket prediction market, a Wise Money bought "Anthropic's Market Cap on IPO Day Will Be Between $1.5T and $1.75T?" with the current probability of "Yes" at 23.4%.
The Wise Money invested $1.1k in "Yes" for "Anthropic's Market Cap on IPO Day Will Be Between $1.5T and $1.75T?", with an average buy-in probability of 16.1%.
DancewithRisk invested $1.1k, with the most relevant sector in this market being Finance, with a net profit of $5.4k. Out of 100 settled trades in this sector, DancewithRisk has a win rate of 81/100 (81%), with 22 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.101-$0.25), the historical median investment amount is $56, making this investment 19.4 times the median.
The Wall Street Journal reported on August 11 that Anthropic is currently engaging with potential investors to boost market confidence in its IPO, with a target window set for September or early October. Anthropic officials stated that Claude has shown continuous growth on the enterprise side, with annualized revenue surpassing $47B in May.
In May, the company raised $65 billion, achieving a post-investment valuation of $965 billion. In July, Business Insider reported that a small volume of secondary market trades for Anthropic shares implied a valuation of around $1.2 trillion. At this price point, reaching a market cap of $1.5T–$1.75T would require a further growth of approximately 25%–46%.
On August 11, The Wall Street Journal also mentioned that investors are inquiring about the cheaper Chinese AI system competition, political friction during the Trump administration, and the rebound in data center construction across the US. Reports on data center financing related to Anthropic and Google on August 5 and 6 highlighted that Anthropic's computing power expansion is heavily reliant on intricate chip, data center, and debt financing structures; this supports the growth narrative but also draws more public market attention to capital expenditures, lease obligations, and AI infrastructure debt risks.
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