Spot Trading Volume Drops to Lowest Level Since 2019, Probability of BTC Rebound This Month Falls to 33%
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money entered $5.7k on the question "Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?" with an average buy probability of 65.2%, and the current "yes" probability is 33.5%.
Egozic86 entered $1.7k, with the top relevant category being cryptocurrency price, with a net profit of $49.9k. Out of 113 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 91/113 (81%), with 18 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was more than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median of historical investment amounts is $11.2k.
skibabiba entered $2.5k, with the top relevant category being cryptocurrency, with a net profit of $2.3k. Out of 6 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 6/6 (100%), with 0 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was more than $0.95.
Machy entered $1.5k, with the top relevant category being cryptocurrency price, with a net profit of $2.4k. Out of 19 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 17/19 (89%), with 5 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was more than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median of historical investment amounts is $1.4k.
On August 13, Glassnode summarized the current Bitcoin state as a "late bear market compression phase": the price is sandwiched between a median realized price of around $63,000 and a short-term holder cost basis of around $68,700. The former provides support, while the latter suppresses rebounds.
The macro environment should have been favorable for BTC. The U.S. July CPI released on August 12 showed an overall CPI of 3.4% YoY, with the core CPI dropping to 2.5% YoY; on the same day, U.S. stocks continued to strengthen, with the S&P 500 hitting new highs. However, Bitcoin has hardly followed the risk assets' uptrend and remains fluctuating in the $63,000-$65,000 range.
On-chain and fund flows also lean cautious. Glassnode noted that spot volume has dropped to a low not seen since 2019, the seller exhaustion index is at a cyclical low, indicating weakening selling pressure; however, ETF inflows have not amplified in sync, exchanges still see inflows, and derivative open interest is relatively high compared to trading volume, suggesting that long leveraged positions have entered ahead of spot demand.
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