Analysis: 41.5% of BTC purchased in 2025 has been sold, the chip turnover rate has approached the levels seen in the past two bear markets

August 14th. On-chain analyst Murphy stated that all BTC purchased in 2025 is currently in a loss position. Every time the number of 2025 chips decreases, apart from wallet transfers, all other movements are selling in capitulation. As of today, there are still 4.77 million BTC purchased in 2025, a 41.5% drop from the peak in December last year.

The slope of the downward trend has shown two distinct phases: a rapid decline before February this year and a slight slowdown after February, but still maintaining a certain slope. This group currently represents the largest part of the supply side in the market. Analyzing data from 2022 to 2024, it is not difficult to find that most of the chips in unrealized gains have already passed the steep slope of decline. Even if the price falls further, the change in the number of these chips is no longer significant. In other words, the potential chips have completed turnover.

From the past two bear markets, during the 2022 bear market bottom, the number of chips from the 2021 peak decreased by 51%; during the 2018 bear market bottom, the number of chips from the 2017 peak decreased by 62%. The analyst personally believes that this round of bear market bottom will at most reach 50-60%, with the current figure at 41%.