SpaceX Stock Price Revisits IPO Price, Wall Street Accelerates Institutional Positioning

September 1st, the SpaceX stock price has regained the IPO price of $135. Earlier, the market was concerned that employees and early investors would sell off their shares en masse after the lock-up period expired, but a large-scale sell-off did not occur, and the stock price instead rose.

The initial rise of SpaceX's listing was partly driven by "scarcity," but as more shares gradually became unlocked, the market's focus shifted from "is the stock scarce" to "who is willing to continue buying." The first large-scale unlock will release approximately 9.12 billion shares, and it is expected that by the end of this year, there may still be around 3 billion additional tradable shares.

Meanwhile, Wall Street is accelerating the inclusion of SpaceX in institutional investment frameworks. Several banks have released target prices after the quiet period expiration, with a median around $225, ranging from $190 to $800. Among them, Goldman Sachs is around $205, JPMorgan Chase is around $225, and Morgan Stanley is around $300.

With analysts' coverage, valuation models, liquidity, and the gradual inclusion in potential indices improving, SpaceX is transitioning from a "scarce asset" to a common security that institutional investors need to compare with assets like Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google.

However, SpaceX's current valuation already includes expectations for the future high-speed growth of businesses such as Starlink, Starship, AI infrastructure, and orbital computing. As the supply of shares increases, the "scarcity premium" will gradually weaken, and whether the stock price can continue to rise will increasingly depend on the fundamental realization capability and whether institutional funds can continue to absorb the additional supply.