Bitunix Analyst:The Hike Is Not the Endpoint—the Real Test for the Fed and Treasury Market Is Just Beginning

September 16 — The Federal Reserve's policy decision has entered its final stage, but market focus has gradually shifted away from the question of "whether to hike rates" itself. What is more worth observing is how the Fed explains its subsequent policy to the market, and whether this action can re-establish expectations for inflation control. When the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks through 5%, market pricing is no longer just about the short-term policy rate, but is reassessing America's inflation, fiscal, and capital needs over the coming years.

This is also the core constraint facing Bessent's recent policy operations. The Treasury hopes to stabilize financial markets by expanding long-term U.S. Treasury buybacks and coordinating yen policy, but the actual results show that the government can influence market liquidity, yet cannot directly determine long-term funding costs. As the deficit continues to expand, AI and infrastructure continue to absorb capital, and global investors reduce their allocations to traditional long-term bonds, the market's demand for higher yields is no longer just short-term sentiment, but may gradually reflect a new equilibrium price.

Energy risks make this problem even more complex. The Middle East conflict is no longer just pushing up oil prices — Saudi Arabia's two major energy transport corridors are under pressure at the same time, while the Russia-Ukraine battlefield further disrupts diesel and refining supply. Energy supply itself has begun to affect transportation and manufacturing, and inflation has thus shifted from a price problem to a supply capacity problem. This will make it harder for central banks to quickly resolve through demand management.

At the same time, global capital markets are facing another structural change: AI is still absorbing large amounts of capital, but investors are beginning to more carefully distinguish between "the actual productivity brought by AI" and "how much capital AI needs to sustain growth." If corporate capital expenditure continues to increase while simultaneously facing higher financing costs, what the market needs in the future is not just revenue growth, but a higher return on capital.

Therefore, what is truly worth watching today is not the Fed's 25 basis points, but whether policy actions can change the chain reaction among long-end interest rates, energy supply, and global capital allocation. If long-end yields remain elevated after short-end policy tightening, it means the market's pricing of long-term U.S. inflation and fiscal risk may have already broken away from the单纯的 Fed cycle; conversely, if the long end stabilizes again, that would indicate the market is beginning to believe policy is sufficient to control inflation expectations. This will become a more important watershed for asset pricing in September than a single rate hike.