Analyst: If the Fed unexpectedly does not raise rates, Bitcoin may break through $82,000

September 16 — Crypto analyst Ali Charts posted that although federal funds futures show about a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve, he is contrarian in judging that the Fed may keep rates unchanged. He stressed that this is not the market consensus, but his personal forecast.

The CLARITY Act failed to secure the 60 votes needed to advance in the Senate, dealing a setback to one of Trump's crypto policy goals; with the midterm elections approaching, Trump needs political wins, and another rate hike could increase economic pressure, which may influence the decisions of Kevin Warsh and the Federal Open Market Committee.

He said that if the Fed unexpectedly holds steady, investors rebalancing positions could drive risk assets higher. Bitcoin has risen only 2 times after the past 14 Fed decisions, but this time it may rebound from around $75,000 and break above $82,000.