Jiang Zhuoer: Market Expected to Drop First Then Rise After Fed Decision, Bitcoin May Test $84,000

September 16: Jiang Zhuoer, founder of LEBIT Mining Pool (B.TOP), stated in a post that at 2 AM Beijing time on September 17, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Based on 30-day federal funds futures prices, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is currently about 92%. He expects the Fed to raise the target rate range from 3.50% to 3.75% up to 3.75% to 4.00%, and believes this outcome is basically a foregone conclusion.

After the rate decision is announced, the Fed will also release the dot plot. Jiang Zhuoer said that focus should be on the median interest rate forecast and the central tendency range after excluding the highest and lowest three points. He expects the dot plot to show two rate hikes in 2026, meaning one more hike within the year after this one, and that the realization of such expectations could drive a short-term market decline.

Jiang Zhuoer believes that the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh starting at 2:30 AM is the biggest variable, and expects it may signal a dovish stance. Therefore, he judges that the most likely market path is "fall first, then rise": a decline after the rate decision and dot plot are released, followed by a recovery after Warsh's speech. He expects Bitcoin may fall below $75,000 and then rebound to $83,000 to $84,000, followed by a larger correction afterward.