Multiple macro bearish factors overlapped, and Bitcoin fell nearly 4% from its intraday high.

September 23 — Bitcoin briefly broke above $87,000 today, hitting its highest level since January, before falling 3.85% and briefly dropping below $84,000. Although it is still up more than 10% over the past week, tonight's pullback may indicate that the market is beginning to digest profit-taking after a rapid rally and is reassessing the liquidity pressures brought by interest rates, oil prices, and the Middle East situation.

Overheated sentiment is the first reason. According to Alternative.me data, the Fear and Greed Index rose to 78 on September 22, returning to the "extreme greed" range for the first time in about 14 months.

Bitcoin's earlier surge to $87,000 also had clear catalysts from the capital structure. A recovery in inflows to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, combined with short-term short covering, helped push prices quickly through key resistance levels. Buying driven by forced short liquidations is highly explosive when the market accelerates, but once prices enter a high-level consolidation, its marginal push quickly weakens, and the market then relies more on real spot buying for support.

Macro pressures are also rising in tandem. Federal Reserve Governor Barr said during the market decline that further rate hikes may be needed to ensure a timely return to the 2% inflation target. The Fed is in an unfavorable position and has adjusted in the right direction.

Recently, other Fed presidents have also taken a hawkish stance. Boston Fed President Collins said that sticky inflation and energy pressures caused by the Middle East conflict were important reasons she supported a September rate hike and expected possibly one more hike this year; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee also said that under persistent supply shocks, lowering inflation may require further rate increases and will bring economic pain. As a result, the market began to reprice the risk of "higher rates for longer."

At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz remains a core variable in the inflation trade. Iranian President Pezeshkian said in a speech tonight that while Iran is under sanctions, the Strait of Hormuz cannot be allowed to be used freely.

Institutions generally believe that if oil prices remain elevated for a long time, it will push up energy inflation and compress the Fed's room for easing. A scenario study by the Dallas Fed estimates that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for a full quarter, Q4 2026 PCE inflation could be raised by an additional 1.09 percentage points. For Bitcoin, this would create pressure through the dollar, real interest rates, and risk appetite.

With multiple macro bearish events overlapping, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.04%, continuing to set its highest level since 2007. The U.S. dollar index DXY touched 101 upward, the first time since July 30, rising 0.47% intraday.