Ansem: During a bull market, strong altcoins will keep emerging, and one should continuously seek opportunities for excess returns.

October 4th, crypto trader Ansem posted that frequently watching the market and judging price trends based on 15-minute candlestick charts can easily lead to overtrading. Investors should manage spot, perpetual contracts, and on-chain high-risk trading accounts separately, and should not try to catch every local top and bottom, as this may harm long-term investment returns. Rather than trading frequently, it is better to study historical bull markets and observe how long upward trends typically last.

The upward cycles of altcoins are usually faster, often lasting 4 to 6 months of outperforming the market, after which new market leaders emerge, especially after achieving more than a 10x increase in market capitalization. However, there may be a few exceptions in this cycle: as prices rise, some altcoins will also see significant revenue growth, so their fundamentals may improve in tandem. In past cycles, altcoins mainly peaked due to a shift in market attention and weakening momentum, but in this cycle, if there are substantive changes in data such as revenue for some projects, institutional funds may continue to actively buy, and investors need to adjust their original judgments promptly based on new information.

In the previous cycle, Bitcoin bottomed in January 2023 and peaked in October 2025, with the upward trend lasting about 33 months. If this cycle has already bottomed in July, it is currently only in its 4th month. He believes that in a longer bull market, there will still be multiple "small bull markets" led by specific altcoins, and investors need to identify these stage-specific strong assets and continuously reinvest profits into outperforming targets, gradually turning short-term winners into long-term investments.