Prestigious US University 'Shields 7 Sexual Assailants,' Sparking Outrage; Prediction Markets Put Odds of Criminal Charges Below 30%

According to PolyBeats monitoring, a sexual assault controversy at Cornell University has drawn national attention after two years of silence. In 2024, a then-20-year-old Cornell student alleged in a civil lawsuit that she was sexually assaulted by multiple people after drinking alcohol and ingesting a substance known as ketamine. After she reported the incident the following month, county prosecutor Matthew Van Houten subsequently decided not to press charges.

On September 22, 2026, the Cornell student newspaper published an editorial directly printing the names of seven perpetrators, with the headline Cornell Won't, We Will, accusing the school of covering it up, saying the task force was useless, and failing to protect students. On September 28, Van Houten announced the reopening of the investigation and preparations to present evidence to a grand jury. On the prediction market Polymarket, the market gave less than 30% probability that "at least one person in the case is indicted for a felony sex crime before February 2027."

yen4u bought $7.62k "No," with a buy probability of 67.11%. This trader has made a total of 940 trades in the politics section, with an 83% win rate, PnL +$12.1k, and this bet is 26.97 times their median bet size.

Gmoney16 bought $1.83k "No," with a buy probability of 68.99%. This trader has made a total of 9 trades in the politics section, with a 100% win rate, PnL +$11.2k, and this bet is 1.44 times their median bet size.

The probability remains low, first because the settlement conditions are far narrower than the news headlines. A civil lawsuit, campus expulsion, reopening of the investigation, appointment of a special prosecutor, or even presenting evidence to a grand jury cannot cause the market to settle "Yes."

Second, new filings may bring in evidence that was not previously used, but these contradictions may also become obstacles when the grand jury reviews credibility. The standards of proof used in campus investigations and civil cases are also significantly lower than those required for criminal indictment and ultimate conviction.