Morgan Stanley is bullish on SpaceX: price target of $300, optimistic about long-term growth potential from enterprise AI, computing power expansion, and the rebuilding of American manufacturing.

October 9: Morgan Stanley has summarized the rebuilding of American advanced manufacturing as "Tera'Merica," believing its opportunities extend beyond chip reshoring to encompass rockets, satellites, industrial robots, humanoid robots, autonomous vehicles, and drones, with SpaceX's spaceflight, satellite communications, and AI infrastructure businesses poised to benefit.

In terms of AI compute, Morgan Stanley estimates SpaceX's AI compute scale will be approximately 4.9GW by the end of fiscal year 2027, with the company targeting close to 10GW. According to its calculations, each additional 1GW of nominal compute could add about $27 per share in value under assumptions of $50 per watt of investment, a 70% incremental margin, and a 10x EBITDA valuation. Based on this assessment, Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on SpaceX with a target price of $300.

Morgan Stanley is also bullish on the commercialization potential of enterprise AI, but notes that the market remains relatively cautious in valuing related businesses and applies a 50% discount to enterprise AI business valuations. Progress on Starship and Starlink, compute construction costs, and the pace of enterprise AI commercialization remain the main risks.