SPY trading volume hits a near 6-year low, new accounts expect BTC to see extreme moves.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a new account Cyclewin was created on October 8 and then bought 9 positions in BTC and ETH deep year-end decline markets, investing $23.25k. Its BTC positions cover six levels from $60k to $35k, and its ETH positions cover three levels from $1.5k to $800. If both deepest thresholds are fully triggered (i.e., BTC falls to $35k and ETH falls to $800), the 9 positions would settle for a total of $304.18k, corresponding to an ROI of about 1,208.2%.

Market consensus analysis suggests that during calm periods, the crypto market can operate independently around ETF fund flows, regulation, and on-chain leverage; when interest rates rise, the dollar strengthens, or risk assets are sold off intensively, the correlation between the crypto market and traditional financial markets usually strengthens rapidly. CME Group also pointed out that the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq often tightens when markets come under pressure.

This is also why SPY trading volume is worth watching. On October 9, SPY rose about 0.6% and closed at $778.57, still near a record high, but only about 22.6m shares traded for the whole day, the lowest level since Christmas Eve 2019.