Kalshi Research: 82% of highly profitable traders have no Wall Street experience, 91% are not full-time traders.

October 10 — A study released by prediction market platform Kalshi shows that its highly profitable traders do not predominantly come from traditional finance backgrounds, and trading performance may be more related to probabilistic reasoning ability.

The study surveyed highly profitable accounts across various Kalshi markets (excluding sports and special categories) in September 2026, sending questionnaires to a total of 2,360 accounts and receiving 325 valid responses, a response rate of 13.8%. The results showed that 82% of highly profitable traders had never worked full-time at an investment bank, hedge fund, private equity firm, or proprietary trading company; 79% attended public high school; 65% said they learned about markets and probability mainly through self-study; 91% were not full-time traders; and 42% had worked at least 6 months in customer service or retail.

In cognitive ability tests, the surveyed traders scored an average of 2.42 points on the Berlin Numeracy Test (out of 4), compared with an average score of 0.62 among a sample of ordinary U.S. adults; 93% of traders resisted the "gambler's fallacy," compared with 57% of the general public. The study concluded that trading edge in prediction markets may come more from probabilistic reasoning, information research, and the ability to distinguish predictable from unpredictable events, rather than from traditional finance industry experience.

In addition, Kalshi's analysis of traders' places of residence showed that only 6.3% of traders lived in ZIP code areas with median household incomes exceeding $150,000, and the income distribution of the overall user base was closer to that of middle-income Americans.