A major HYPE airdrop whale is bullish on Variational, predicting that smart money in the prediction market is betting on a strong opening performance for VAR.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, according to X blogger muar, an0n2498.hl, who previously received a $15 million Hyperliquid airdrop, completed nearly $3b in trading volume on Variational, ranking second on the platform's all-time trading leaderboard. an0n2498.hl subsequently stated that after VAR launches, they plan not to sell a single token, while heavily buying spot and opening long contracts.

On the prediction market Polymarket, imjustalarp predicts that VAR's FDV on its first trading day will be greater than $500m/$800m/$1b, with a total investment of $22.3k. If the FDV ultimately exceeds $1b, these three positions could profit $13.2k.

imjustalarp bought $7.24k on "Will Variational's FDV be greater than $1b on its first trading day?" at a buy probability of 51.42%. With 90%+ as late-session trading, their open trades in the FDV category total 77, with a win rate of 73%, PnL +$52.9k, and this investment is 5.27 times their median investment.

Variational is an on-chain derivatives protocol that completed approximately a $50m Series A in May this year, led by Dragonfly, with participation from Bain Capital Crypto and Coinbase Ventures, among others, without disclosing the project's equity valuation.

Officially, the TGE is currently scheduled for Q4 2026, with 32% of tokens allocated to the genesis airdrop and fully unlocked at launch. According to community estimates, the total points at TGE could reach approximately 10.2m. If the 32% airdrop pool corresponds to a $1b FDV, its theoretical market cap would be $320m, with each point worth approximately $31.