Trump's approval rating nears low point across both terms, 2 smart money predict it will continue to decline.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Trump's approval rating dropping to 35% in 2026" is 29%. A Pew survey on October 8 showed that only about 30% of Americans approve of Trump's job performance, close to the low point at the end of his first term (29%).

On the same day, another Pew survey showed that only 21% of Americans consider the economic situation "good/excellent," one of the lowest assessments during Trump's two terms, with public concerns particularly prominent over food and energy prices.

Jep-G bought $9.47k "Yes" on "Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?" at a purchase probability of 31.55%. They have made 226 trades in the approval rating sector, with a win rate of 51%, PnL +$2.3k, and this investment is 62.92 times their median investment.
johnyjo bought $763.84 "Yes" on "Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?" at a purchase probability of 27.65%. They have made 377 trades in the approval rating sector, with a win rate of 58%, PnL +$4.8k, and this investment is 21.59 times their median investment.

Historically, pressure on presidential approval ratings in midterm years is not uncommon. In Gallup tracking, almost every post-World War II president (except Eisenhower and Kennedy) experienced periods below 40%; in post-war public records, Truman's approval rating hit 22% in February 1952, George W. Bush reached 25% during the financial crisis in October 2008, and Carter and Nixon also fell into the 20% range.