Wednesday US Stocks Preview: 2 Smart Money Buys as S&P Closes Higher Today

According to PolyBeats monitoring, the US today announced that the September unadjusted CPI annual rate came in at 3.7%, a new high since May this year, with inflation heating up across the board, and the market increased expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that the S&P 500 closes higher today is 68%.

e25247f2da2a2462f03c bought $866.55 "Yes", with a buy probability of 59.77%. It has made a total of 509 trades in the SPX sector, with a win rate of 56%, PnL +$65.0k, and this investment was 0.25 times its median investment.

0x06b2934b382D4429D5 bought $145.49 "Yes", with a buy probability of 69.31%. It has made a total of 115 trades in the SPX sector, with a win rate of 44%, PnL +$136.5k, and this investment was 0.10 times its median investment.

In addition to CPI, the second layer of today's key data is earnings. BAC, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock report before the open, following Tuesday's debut of major banks; even though some bank stocks weakened yesterday, trading and consumer-related signals are still being treated as circumstantial evidence of economic resilience, and if today's guidance does not stumble, the financial sector can continue to support the index.

The third layer is chip sentiment. After the Korean chip selloff eased, the KOSPI stopped falling, and ASML today and TSMC Thursday's numbers are being treated as verification of whether AI demand is still solid; if the equipment and foundry side is not disproven, the drag on the S&P from Nasdaq heavyweight stocks will weaken. The fourth layer is overnight risk appetite itself: US stock futures have already turned slightly green, which is equivalent to writing "a rebound first" into opening expectations.