Can Bitcoin hit $100,000 by year-end? Market views diverge, with institutional bullishness clashing with macroeconomic headwinds.

October 18 - Whether Bitcoin can return to $100,000 by year-end is becoming a focal point of debate among analysts. Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at crypto asset management firm Bitwise, holds an optimistic view, believing that as the market digests short-term uncertainties, Bitcoin is expected to break through $100,000 before year-end. Core drivers include institutional buying from ETFs and corporate funds, demand for hard assets amid rising inflation and government debt, and regulatory clarity. However, he expects the Fed's possible rate hike at the end of October and the US midterm elections in November to bring severe volatility.

In contrast, Adam Morgan McCarthy, Head of Research at LO:TECH, is more cautious. His base case is that Bitcoin will oscillate in the $85,000 to $95,000 range by year-end. He stated that the Fed already raised rates in September and the probability of a December rate hike is about 75%, with the macro environment continuing to be unfavorable for bulls; he believes that returning to $100,000 requires the fading of December rate hike expectations and cooling of oil prices and inflation as preconditions.

Market microstructure retains a glimmer of hope for the bulls. Luca Invernizzi, Senior Derivatives Trader at Laser Digital, pointed out that excessive leverage has been largely cleared, speculative positions have shifted to altcoins, funding rates are at zero or negative, and the August rebound mainly stemmed from short covering rather than new longs, creating conditions for a subsequent short squeeze; once BTC cleanly breaks through $90,000, it could trigger a new round of short covering.

James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, believes that government fiscal risks could translate into demand for Bitcoin in the long term, but sustained capital allocation based on fiscal arguments is needed to expect a decisive breakthrough.

A Citigroup report noted that total crypto market capitalization grew from approximately $2.1 trillion to nearly $3 trillion in the third quarter, with institutional ETF flows turning to net inflows, though recent inflows have slowed. Overall, the tug-of-war between long-term institutional adoption and short-term macro tightening constitutes the core suspense for year-end price action.