Bloomberg: Trump prepares for potential military escalation against Iran after U.S. and Israeli elections

October 24 - According to Bloomberg, the United States is increasing its deployment for a possible resumption of military strikes against Iran. Trump has repeatedly hinted that the U.S. military may resume strikes on Iran after the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, and has dispatched a third carrier strike group and an additional 10,000 sailors and Marines toward the Persian Gulf, providing commanders with more operational options, though the specific timing remains uncertain.

U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth visited Israel this week without prior announcement and met with Netanyahu. Israel will hold elections on October 27. Meanwhile, after Iran-backed Houthi forces expanded the conflict to Saudi Arabia, attacking airports and energy facilities, the U.S. State Department has ordered the evacuation of some diplomatic personnel and their families stationed in Saudi Arabia.

A source familiar with Iran's thinking said Iran is preparing for a possible new round of bombing around the U.S. midterm elections and is planning retaliation in the Middle East, including against Israel and the UAE. The source believes that the period from the end of the U.S. elections to the seating of the new Congress in January next year will be the most difficult phase, and the way out lies in reaching an agreement that allows both sides to claim victory. Some Gulf officials are concerned that the intensity of renewed hostilities could exceed that before the pause.

Recent diplomatic attempts to end the conflict have failed to yield results. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said this week that if there is sufficient evidence that the U.S. side sincerely hopes to reach a fair, dignified, and permanent solution to end the conflict, Iran is willing to give diplomacy another chance, but he also said there is currently not much reason to expect progress.

The conflict has disrupted energy transportation in the Persian Gulf, driving Brent crude up more than 80% this year and pushing up U.S. gasoline prices and living costs. A Pew Research Center survey conducted from September 28 to October 4 shows that about two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the Iran conflict, and about half of respondents expect the war to last more than a year. The report notes that concerns about military escalation are once again pushing up oil prices and affecting Republican midterm election prospects.