Bernstein cuts Coinbase price target to $250, raises Robinhood and Circle expectations.

October 27 - Bernstein maintained its "outperform" ratings on Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle in its latest research report, but adjusted its performance forecasts and target prices for the three companies. As spot cryptocurrency trading growth slows, prediction markets, derivatives, and tokenization businesses are becoming new growth engines for the companies involved.

For Coinbase, Bernstein lowered its target price from $330 to $250 and cut its 2026 revenue forecast by about 32% to $5.5 billion, expecting a full-year loss per share of $2.60, compared with a previous expectation of earnings per share of $5.97. The firm expects Coinbase's prediction market and derivatives businesses to generate about $2 billion in revenue by 2028, up from an earlier estimate of about $600 million at the start of the year.

For Robinhood, Bernstein maintained its $160 target price and expects its prediction market business to reach $1.7 billion in revenue by 2028, slightly above the $1.6 billion expected for its crypto business in the same period. The firm expects the company's third-quarter event contract trading volume to rise 21% quarter over quarter to about 16.4 billion contracts; its proprietary blockchain launched in July is expected to see about $90 billion in third-quarter trading volume, generating about $50 million in fees.

For Circle, Bernstein raised its target price from $140 to $145 and expects third-quarter revenue to edge up to $770 million. Although USDC circulation fell from about $77 billion in the second quarter to about $73 billion, putting pressure on reserve income, the Arc token presale and future transaction fees and validator staking income are expected to provide new sources of growth.