Netanyahu posts AI image of mushroom cloud on social media; prediction markets put his re-election odds in Israel's election at under 30%.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, today is the voting day for Israel's 26th Knesset election. This is Israel's first general election since October 7, widely framed as a referendum on Netanyahu's wartime leadership. The Polymarket market "Netanyahu to be Israel's next Prime Minister" stands at approximately 27.5%.

Over the past 24 hours, the "Yes" side saw about $413k in buys from 74 traders, of whom only 16 have positive account P&L; the "No" side saw about $1m in buys from 128 traders, of whom 95 meet the same threshold. Total market 24-hour volume is approximately $2.44M.

On October 25–26, Netanyahu posted an AI-generated image of a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv on social media, saying Israel faces an Iranian "existential threat" and stressing the need to "finish the job on Iran" while Donald Trump is in office; opponents accused him of intimidating voters.

On October 26, Trump publicly called to "vote for Bibi Netanyahu... finish the job"; Netanyahu said Trump is willing to act again to eliminate the Iranian threat, but only if he himself remains in power. During the same period, White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said the U.S. "will not attack Iran at any time before the midterm elections."