An account heavily bet $2.5 million on interest rates remaining unchanged, historically earning $1.9 million by sweeping the closing bell.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on October 27, the Federal Reserve's two-day FOMC meeting kicked off its first day. As of now, in the Polymarket event "October 2026 Fed Decision," the probability of "rates unchanged" is about 93.9%, and "25 basis point rate hike" is about 5.5%.

Currently, the top holder for both "rates will remain unchanged" and "no 25 basis point hike" is elmcap2. If rates stay unchanged this month, the account's theoretical maximum profit is $166k, ROI +6.72%. The elmcap2 account's total profit is currently about $2.15M, of which about $1.9M comes from late-stage trades with entry prices above 90%, including $835k in profit from late-stage trades with entry prices above 90% in the Fed rate sector.

elmcap2 bought $1.22M. The account has a 90.6% win rate across 96 trades in the Fed rate sector, with PnL +$855.5k and ROI +1.3%. This trade's investment was 1.83 times its average investment in this sector.

Reuters reported on October 26 that New York Fed President John Williams, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, and others are "willing to wait for more data"; analysis suggests that after the September rate hike, U.S. Treasury yields surged sharply, some officials were "spooked," and the market sharply cut bets on an October hike. By the time the meeting began, mainstream pricing cited by Reuters, CNBC, Yahoo, and others was roughly 90% for unchanged and about 10% or less for a hike, with "at least one more hike this year" mostly assigned to the December meeting.