FOMC Preview: Key Focus on Statement Wording to Gauge Fed's Future Dovish or Hawkish Stance

October 29, with less than 20 minutes to go, the Federal Reserve's October FOMC interest rate decision will be officially announced. Before that, the key points worth watching in this FOMC mainly include the following aspects:

Resolution Statement:

· The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to press the "pause button" on rate hikes. If it chooses to hike, it will be another rare policy action before the US election.

· Whether the vote ratio is unanimous (last time was 12-0). This meeting may see 2 to 3 dissenting votes in favor of a rate hike, with Logan and Hammack most likely to support a hike.

· If the policy statement focuses on financial stability, it may be seen as dovish; if concerns about inflation and energy price spillovers intensify, it may be seen as hawkish.

· Whether the wording of the statement is adjusted. If it still retains "return to target in a timely manner" or further emphasizes "act as necessary," it implies there is still room for tightening.

Warsh Press Conference:

· Warsh's press conference is expected to continue the refined and pragmatic style, without giving clear forward guidance, and the tone may lean toward objectively stating the current situation.

· How Warsh explains the decision to hold steady in October while maintaining flexibility for policy action in December.

· Warsh may be asked to explain what signal the high US Treasury yields and their recent pullback are sending.

· Warsh may be asked to interpret the stock market selloff triggered by artificial intelligence and how to deal with a potential bubble.