Analyst: Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis is approximately $76,000, and holding confidence is being tested.

October 31 - Crypto analyst Darkfost posted that the average cost basis for Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) is approaching $76,000, and the current price is testing their holding confidence. The STH MVRV (ratio of market cap to realized cap) is nearing the neutral level of 1; this metric had risen above 1.18 in late September, the highest since July 2025, meaning the group's unrealized profits were at a more than one-year high at that time.

He pointed out that the short-term holders' cost basis has continued to rise from about $67,500 in mid-August, indicating that this group participated in Bitcoin's rally during the same period. With Bitcoin's medium-term momentum turning positive, the price area corresponding to MVRV returning to neutral levels may prompt short-term holders to take action: either continue buying or capitulate and sell as they did yesterday. He said the two behaviors usually coexist, but whether holding confidence can prevail remains to be seen.