AMD rebounded on the eve of its earnings report, with over $10 million in long and short costs concentrated near $522.
November 3 — AMD's US stock rose back to around $478 in pre-market trading, rebounding about 2.4% from yesterday's close. The company will release its third-quarter earnings after the bell on November 3 US Eastern Time, with the conference call scheduled for 06:00 Beijing Time on November 4.
The market expects AMD's third-quarter revenue to be around $13.1 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.95; the company previously guided revenue of $13 billion, plus or minus $300 million, with a non-GAAP gross margin of about 56%.
The realization of the AI business is also a focus of this earnings report. On October 27, AMD confirmed that the first batch of Helios racks had been installed and tested at Meta, and the subsequent ramp-up pace and initial profit performance will be a focus of the conference call.
About $11.95 million in existing long and short positions concentrated in the same cost area
According to TradingBeats monitoring, among 27 addresses with positions worth more than $100,000, 9 longs hold a total of about $5.818 million, with a position-weighted average entry price of about $522.58; 18 shorts hold a total of about $6.13 million, with a weighted average entry price of about $522.37.
On the long side, only 2 accounts are in unrealized profit, while the other 7 are still in unrealized loss; on the short side, 15 accounts are in unrealized profit. The cost bases on the two sides differ by only about $0.21.
Among them, the largest long address 0xfd6a still holds about $4.0544 million in AMD long positions, with an average entry price of $527.383, and is currently at an unrealized loss of about $419,100. The account uses 10x isolated leverage, with an estimated liquidation price of $416.06, and has not adjusted its position since midnight Monday.
The top short address 0xfc667 has an average entry price of about $529.31.
In addition, new longs are beginning to enter. In the early hours of this morning, address 0xad09 opened a new AMD long position of about $285,200 at an average price of $475.34, while another address 0x58b2 bought about $231,800 in long positions at an average price of $467.78.
Options market: break-even point at $425–$510
In the options market, based on quotes near the close of the previous trading day on Cboe, AMD call and put options expiring on November 4 with a strike price of $467.5 have a combined premium of about $42.55 per share.
If both legs are bought simultaneously and held to expiration, AMD needs to be above $510.05 or below $424.95 for the combination to be profitable.
For the same strike price combination expiring on November 6, the total premium is approximately $48.20, corresponding to breakeven points of $419.30 and $515.70.