10x Research: Bitcoin may rise to $90,000 by year-end, Ethereum may underperform Bitcoin

November 4th: Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, predicts that Bitcoin is still expected to rise to $90,000 by the end of the year, but may first fall back to the mid-to-high $70,000 range. He expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates once more by December, after which it will be more cautious about further rate hikes, which could be conducive to a Bitcoin rebound before the end of the year.

Thielen believes that the participation of Wall Street traders and profit-taking by large holders are changing Bitcoin's trajectory. Institutional traders sell call options after price increases, making it harder for the consecutive double-digit gains seen in earlier years to recur. He expects Bitcoin is more likely to rise rapidly after the release of important economic data or Fed decisions, then trade sideways while waiting for the next macro event.

On the ETF demand side, Thielen estimates based on 13F holdings filings that market makers may account for as much as half of the approximately $60 billion in net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs that he analyzed. These institutions hold ETF shares that can be used to hedge options trades, and are not necessarily betting on Bitcoin rising. However, he still believes institutional investors and some sovereign wealth funds may enter in the future.

Thielen also expects Bitcoin to outperform Ethereum. He believes that a significant portion of the value generated by Ethereum network activity flows to Layer 2, and lower transaction fees may also reduce the amount of ETH burned. Citing Hyperliquid's use of trading fees to buy and burn HYPE as an example, he believes Ethereum needs to establish a more direct link between network usage and the economic returns to ETH holders.