U.S. Treasuries rose amid midterm election impacts, with markets anticipating constrained government spending.
November 4, Wednesday, US Treasury bonds rose. As Democrats are expected to control Congress, investors anticipate a political gridlock in Washington that could limit government spending; meanwhile, AI regulation may slow economic growth and reduce the need for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Analysts said the market also breathed a sigh of relief that President Trump's plan to distribute $5,000 to every American adult may not be fulfilled.
In addition, the stock market decline prompted investors to turn to safe-haven assets such as Treasury bonds, which also provided support to the bond market. Trump previously promised to distribute $5,000 to every American adult citizen if Republicans successfully retain control of Congress. This plan involves about $1.2 trillion, equivalent to 16% of the federal budget. Andrew Lilley, Chief Rate Strategist at Barrenjoey, said: "Although the market previously believed the probability of this scenario was only 5%, that risk has now disappeared. If it were actually implemented, the Treasury market would react catastrophically."