Next week's macro outlook: US CPI data to be the market focus, US stocks to see CoreWeave and Nebius earnings reports

November 8 — Next week, the U.S. October CPI, PPI, and speeches by multiple Federal Reserve officials will become market focal points. Previously, U.S. October nonfarm payrolls added 165,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, fueling expectations of an interest rate hike. LSEG data shows that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December implied by federal funds rate futures has risen to about 80%, and the market expects this cycle may still include two cumulative rate hikes, each by 25 basis points.

On the inflation data front, U.S. October CPI will be released at 21:30 Beijing time on November 10, and PPI data will be released at 21:30 on November 13. ING expects both headline CPI and core CPI to rise 0.3% month over month, enough to support a December rate hike as a high-probability event. Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex, believes that unless October CPI is significantly below expectations or the November employment report released on December 4 is clearly weak, the market is expected to almost fully price in a 25-basis-point rate hike by the time next month's policy meeting takes place.

On the Federal Reserve side, officials including Waller, Bowman, Barr, and Jefferson will speak or participate in discussions during the week. With inflation data due, the market will continue to watch whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates again in December. In tech stocks, according to U.S. Eastern Time, CoreWeave will report third-quarter results after the bell on November 10, Nebius will report third-quarter results before the bell on November 12, and Cisco will report first-quarter fiscal 2027 results after the bell on November 12. Together with the Anthropic IPO roadshow, this forms a "double stress test" for AI assets.

Some strategists believe the current decline in U.S. stocks is still not enough to confirm a market bottom. Bob Lang, chief options analyst at Explosive Options, noted that the CBOE put/call ratio rose to 1.2 on Thursday, double the average level of 0.6, but similar readings still need to appear consecutively to confirm that concentrated selling has ended. Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, wants to see the VIX rise above 30 to confirm true panic-driven liquidation, while on Friday the index was still around 24. He believes the year's high for U.S. stocks may already have appeared and, while bullish on Micron, Nvidia, and the semiconductor sector, advocates buying gradually rather than entering aggressively immediately.

On the geopolitical front, the United States, Russia, and Ukraine plan to hold working-level negotiations in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11. Budanov, head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, said he does not expect breakthrough results from the talks but considers the resumption of face-to-face meetings itself to be progress. On the U.S.-Iran side, Vance and mediators are discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting, but it has not yet been finalized.