Deutsche Bank: SpaceX's political risk is overestimated; tightening computing power supply actually boosts the company's revenue.

November 8 - Deutsche Bank's latest research report points out that market concerns about political retaliation against SpaceX after the midterm elections are significantly overestimated. The bank maintains its "Buy" rating and $250 price target. Deutsche Bank believes that SpaceX's core contracts are all signed by federal administrative agencies such as NASA and the Space Force, leaving extremely limited room for congressional intervention, and most business areas currently lack viable alternative suppliers. Even if SpaceX and Tesla seek a merger, Congress has no authority to directly block it and can only delay through hearing procedures. The real near-term risk worth watching comes from the Texas governor-elect's tough stance on data centers, but this is more likely to lead to stricter scrutiny rather than an outright ban. Since the vast majority of SpaceX's computing capacity in 2027 will be deployed outside Texas, the short-term impact is limited, but expansion plans for 2028 and beyond face uncertainty and may shift to locations such as Louisiana.

The Deutsche Bank report further proposes a contrarian logic: if Texas policy causes the overall U.S. computing capacity expansion to slow, SpaceX may actually benefit. Because its computing infrastructure buildout is faster and lower-cost than competitors, and new cloud contracts include a 90-day cancellation clause, SpaceX can flexibly capture upside when spot prices rise. If industry-wide computing supply is constrained, SpaceX has the ability to significantly raise pricing, thereby driving revenue and EBITDA higher.

Regarding Texas policy uncertainty, Musk recently stated that "data centers in space now look quite attractive." Deutsche Bank notes that the reusability of Starship will be key to unlocking the economics of orbital data centers, with a base-case forecast of deployment scale reaching 500 megawatts by the end of 2029. On the launch business side, since approval and regulation fall under the federal FAA's purview, the Texas governor cannot directly intervene, but can increase the difficulty of expanding Starbase through land-use rights and state-level permits.